Debatably more than any other rookie, Houston Texans fans are excited about the arrival of John Metchie. The 44th overall selection in Round 2 is the team’s highest wide receiver pick since Will Fuller in 2016 and represents a bundle of hope for the Texans offense.
At Alabama, Metchie operated both inside from the slot receiver and outside on the boundary. He dazzled with his fantastic footwork to the tune of 96 receptions and over 1,100 yards during his junior season with the Crimson Tide. Metchie’s phenomenal college campaign was cut short by an ACL tear in the SEC Championship game against the Georgia Bulldogs. As the rookie enters the NFL, Metchie projects to play the slot in between star wideout Brandin Cooks and emerging second year wideout Nico Collins.
The injury, in conjunction with his lack of either elite size or elite speed, make Metchie an interesting case study. What can Houston realistically expect in year one from their rookie wide receiver?
Rookie WR John Metchie has arrived to get some side work in. #WeAreTexans pic.twitter.com/9Y68laFKQL
— Landry Locker (@LandryLocker) June 1, 2022
His ACL tear happened on December 4th of 2021, which puts the traditional “nine-month time frame” on ACL injuries on Sept. 4. That date is exactly one week before Houston’s opening contest against the Indianapolis Colts. However, with the Texans in the midst of a lengthy rebuild, they may give Metchie more time than that.
For arguments sake, what if Houston conservatively gives Metchie 10 months to recover from that injury before playing live football? That would place his opening contest at either the Los Angeles Chargers game on Oct. 2 or against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct. 9 before entering the bye week.
Metchie could do a lot of damage in 12 NFL games. Last year the Texans attempted 546 passes. Assuming they kept the same pace, that leaves at least 380 passing attempts for Davis Mills on the season. Would it be unreasonable to think Metchie could eat up a fifth of those targets operating as Mills’ security blanket from the slot?
76 targets would be a huge positive for Metchie and is right in line with his current fantasy football projections. ESPN has the wideout for 51 receptions and 615 yards while Sleeper projects 57 receptions for 626 yards.
With Metchie doing a lot of work from the slot, it’s possible his depth of target might be lower while he actually corrals more receptions. 65 catches with 610 yards and five touchdowns in an abbreviated rookie campaign would be realistic, and provide lightning flashes of potential for what Metchie could become.
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