How dare they talk poorly about my Texans
In PFF’s annual “reasons to be scared” post which they comb through each team and provide their top prevailing worries heading into the season, they landed on several notable factors potentially plaguing the Houston Texans.
You can watch the full video linked below.
In each section I address a topic or string of points they made on the video and my own level of concern too.
Performance Variability
Variability. What if last year was simply the high water mark and they caught lightning in a bottle and this approach of can we win it all this year; lets go get Denielle Hunter, Stefon Diggs…. these players who can win now? What if they’re not as far ahead as they thought they were?
There’s a right to be concerned about a team’s variability when a significant portion of wins came down to the last drive. How drastically different would the Texans 2023 storyline be if they didn’t pull off miraculous victories against Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, and Tennessee late in the season? What comes up must go down right?
With a more difficult schedule and a target on their back, teams won’t be taking the Texans as lightly in 2024. There will be less room for error against the other AFC Division champions than the washboard of teams Houston faced last year.
The PFF analysts draw a fleeting comparison to last year’s New York Giants who made the playoffs at 9-7-1 and won a game in the playoffs just like the Texans. However they step away from the mirror and clearly identify that this Houston team has a breadth and depth of talent superior to that Giants team.
C.J. Stroud Regression and Full Season of Tape
Expectations couldn’t be higher for the second year QB, but what if we’ve already seen the high-end version of what C.J. Stroud is going to be? We’ve seen impressive rookie quarterback seasons in the past that weren’t ever achieved in their careers again.
In the last 10 to 12 years we’ve seen impressive rookie seasons like RG3 in year one… you also have Baker Mayfield have his best season his rookie season until now.
To emphasize the drop off, here’s QB Baker Mayfield’s stats since entering the league.
What Stroud has that RG3 and Mayfield didn’t are the “ingredients to be able to adjust to what defenses can throw at him” as quoted in the video. All three QBs have winning pedigrees and unique dynamic approach to the game, but neither of RG3 and Baker have the technique, surrounding talent, and ideal coaching staff to build on a successful rookie season.
Tape and defense will have something to be said in the lead up to the 2024 season, but that’s only the very beginning of the development of this offense. Bobby Slowik’s offense was in its base, fundamental form. Including the addition of Stefon Diggs, this offense will evolve as quickly as it was formed.
CB2 and Derek Stingley Jr.’s Performance Volatility
The starting role opposite of cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is as widely debated as any position battle this offseason. The additions of failed veterans and rookie Kamari Lassiter haven’t quelled the concern surrounding this vital role. Plus, the co-hosts address the variability of the young starting CB Stingley’s performance given his first two seasons.
While the CB2 position will be an enigma until someone steps in and takes the spot with their play. It very well could be a committee approach, but the one massive opening on the team truly shouldn’t be a concern as the Texans addressed the role with their first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Stingley’s performance leap from year one to year two was one of the greatest reliefs in Texans history. His improvement and health paved the way for improved play as the year went on. His 84.9 PFF Coverage grade is fifth among players who played more than four games this year. Plus, his five interceptions were second among all cornerbacks last season.
Offensive line
“Wouldn’t say it’s a position of weakness…”
Having the most injured line in 2024 isn’t the title Houston coveted. Between Kenyon Green’s lackluster performance and ability to stay healthy and the Texans’ two offensive tackles coming off their own injuries, the offensive line can be the preceding Jenga block before the entire tower falls.
Sure, the offensive line was not impervious to injury, it also held up quite well given the re-shuffling that occurred quite too often. Players like Jarrett Patterson, Kendrick Green, and Noah Fant stepped up in meaningful ways. The entire front five returning, plus second rounder Blake Fisher, Patterson, Green, and Charlie Heck means the offensive line will be deep and talented across the board.
Sure, there’s plenty to worry about, but the Texans are in a fantastic position heading into the 2024 football season.