Who emerges from a lukewarm group of candidates?
As training camp is set to begin, there are any number of questions that people will look to in July. The nature of beast for your Houston Texans is that most of these questions will come on the offensive end. A part of that is simply historical. This team has a higher rated defense than offense. Higher rated units have fewer questions. There are fewer open competitions.
Granted, there are always players that can make a huge leap forward and we have seen that on the defensive end, so we will get to some of those stories before camp breaks in late August. However, when you couple a new offensive coordinator with a struggling unit, the number of questions gets multiplied on the offensive end.
Unlike Bobby Slowik, Caley comes in as an experienced position coach. Tight ends were his speciality, so you at least have to hope that he will pull something extra out of this position group. Dalton Schultz is the most likely recipient of that largesse, but the range of his performance is probably also limited. It is the list of guys under him where we could see some significant improvement.
Cade Stover
Stover is the most likely backup in this scenario. Stover played 15 games last season and caught 15 passes. He had only 22 targets which amounts to about 1.5 targets a game. Give him just one additional target a week and you are talking 37 targets with a likely increase to 25 catches. That’s assuming just minimal progression and the kind of performance we could predict from year one to year two.
I’d imagine that if you shot truth serum into Caley and DeMeco Ryans, they would probably gladly step back and take 50 catches from Schultz and 25 from Stover and take their chances. The idea is that you would see incremental progress at the position and if you add that to incremental progress at running back, wide receiver, and overall protection then you’d see a dramatically better offense.
However, out all of the candidates here, Stover has the best chance of breaking out. A lot of that depends on the packages that Caley runs. If he runs more two tight end sets then you could be looking at between 30 and 40 catches very easily. If he runs more one tight end sets then the gains will be more modest.
Brevin Jordan
Jordan is a four year pro that has played in only 36 games. I’m not a math whiz, but that looks like nine games a season. He has 53 receptions in those 36 games which means he is a possibility to grab those same numbers we projected for Stover above. Obviously, nothing could replace the legend of Bennie Joppru, but Jordan is a similar figure in that we always seem to list him as a breakout candidate and something always seems to keep him from doing it.
We have seen him make some absolutely brilliant athletic plays that only he could do. Dynamic offenses need dynamic players and he has always had the potential to be that guy and he occasionally has. It usually has come in December for some reason. The Texans need a dynamic guy in the other four months of the season.
Luke Lachey
There is a simple premise all coaches understand. The purest form of coaching comes in the first year. It is at that point that you know none of the players and therefore you don’t have pre-conceived notions about who should play and who should sit. Caley is a former tight ends coach, so you have to believe he knows what he wants in the position and knows what he is looking for.
As a fan, these are always the most exciting parts of watching a new coach. You don’t know who they are going to like and not like. Lachey had 74 receptions in what ostensibly was four seasons at Iowa. Those numbers won’t blow your skirt up, so nobody at Iowa is producing numbers that will blow your skirt up. As a 6 foot 6, 250 pound tight end, he could end up being used primarily as a blocker.
Usage rates can change dramatically from college to the pros. Some college offenses just don’t utilize tight ends that much. It becomes a lot about projection and as an experienced tight end coach, Caley can probably project that position better than any other one. So, Lachey could be someone to watch in camp so that we get an idea of how Caley projects using him.