Houston is expected to be a championship contender. What could derail those ambitions?
With the coming of August, we are fast approaching the start of training camps, when 32 NFL teams get set for the coming of the new season. For the Houston Texans, winners of back-to-back AFC South titles, they are looking to go above and beyond, with aspirations of finally making a Conference Championship game, if not actually making and winning the Super Bowl. There is talent and opportunity. Yet, for all the optimism, the Texans aren’t assured of building on the success of the last two seasons. They aren’t even assured of repeating as divisional champions. So much can go right, but what could go wrong?
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The Offensive Line, only excelling in “Look-Out” blocks: Let’s call out the obvious. If the offensive line does not improve its less-than-stellar performance from last season, the Texans will not move forward. The Texans front office undertook some massive overhauling of the line, cutting and trading many of the 2024 veterans and bringing in a mix of new veterans along with a rookie tackle prospect to try to improve. Maybe the new blood will be enough. Yet, most of the new vets brought in can hardly be considered individual upgrades. Synergy must carry the day under the new scheme and new leadership. The front office likely thought that it couldn’t get worse on the Oline. Yet, what if it does? Stroud somehow held up under a season of brutal beatings, but his regression from his rookie season is directly correlated to a near-league worst offensive line situation. Another year taking the beating he did, and Texans fan are going to have nightmares of Stroud becoming David Carr 2.0.
About that schedule…: The NFL is like a number of other organizations in that no good deed goes unpunished. By virtue of winning the AFC South, Houston gets a 1st place schedule, which means dates with fellow division winners Baltimore (on the road, where they’ve never won) and Buffalo (who made it to the AFC title game last season). Throw this on top of the NFL schedule rotation that gives Houston dates with the AFC West, which has 3 playoff teams (@ Chiefs, @ Chargers, Broncos) and a likely improving Raiders team, and the NFC West, which historically gives Houston all sorts of issues. The team has back-to-back 10-7 seasons, which has only been good enough for a 4-seed. To be a higher seed, Houston needs to improve on that record, but with this schedule, improvement is far from a given. The AFC South is seen as the Texans’ playground, but teams like Jacksonville and Indianapolis have seen some talent upgrades. Depending on other factors, Houston might consider going 10-7 a major achievement.
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The “Sophomore Slump” strikes again: Given the rebuild of the Texans since 2020 and the upward trajectory following, it is not surprising that Houston had rookies who met or exceeded expectations. In theory, a great start augers a better future. Sometimes though, teams can see rookie sensations take a step back in performance in Year 2, aka the “Sophomore Slump”. Unfortunately for Houston, they’ve seen more than their fair share of those. In 2022, Dameon Pierce and Jalen Pitre had strong rookie debuts, looking like franchise building blocks. However, 2023 saw both suffer major sophomore downturns. 2023, CJ Stroud had a rookie season for the ages, but instead of building into an MVP candidate in 2024, his play came back to earth in a solid but far from spectacular performance. Now attention turns to the rookie DBs that help turn the Texans’ secondary into one of the best in the league. CB Kamari Lassiter more than held his own as teams sought to throw away from DJ Stingley, holding receivers to a 46% completion percentage against him. S Calen Bullock help man the defensive backfield, procuring 5 INTs. On the surface, there is no reason to expect either to drop off. Then again, few thought that sophomore slumps would hit Pierce, Pitre and Stroud. Oh, and the sophomore slump doesn’t hit all (see Anderson Jr., Will). If the “Sophomore Slump” claims either Lassiter or Bullock, or both, then the Houston defensive scheme is in for a bad time.
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Austin Brinkman doesn’t meet expectations: Over the past 15 seasons, the Houston Texans found themselves facing issues across almost all areas on and off the field. Yet, for those 15 seasons, one area that the Texans never had a problem with was the long snapper. Jon Weeks was the constant of the franchise, with nary a botched snap on a punt or FG attempt. However, the Texans, for the 1st time since 2009, will open camp with the long snapper position up for grabs, as Weeks now calls San Francisco home. Given all the other concerns, the long snapper seems minor. However, a botched snap could be the difference between a game-winning FG or a game-losing blunder. Overall, the Houston special teams have been more strength than limitation under Frank Ross. To remain a strength, the long snapper replacement must step up.
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Strong personalities, but in a bad way: With Joe Mixon, Azeez Al-Shaiir and now C.J. Gardner-Johnson, the Texans have some outspoken players who play with passion. For a relatively young roster like Houston, that passion can be a good thing. Yet, the margin between good passion and bad passion is quite slim. What happens if the team’s fortunes slump, and suddenly, Gardner-Johnson is not boasting of winning championships, but gripping about playing time and/or selfish concerns? Does Mixon become a malcontent if things turn South? Does this rub off on other players on the roster? While not as big a player as the other two, does the off-season legal drama of Jimmie Ward come to disrupt the roster as well?
This list is not all-inclusive. Injuries, especially to key personnel, are always a concern for a franchise. There is always the potential of a Black Swan that comes from out of nowhere and disrupts a season (or more). Likely Houston will be in the playoff hunt, but Texans teams can fall by the wayside unexpectedly (see 2013-14, 2017-18, 2020-21). If the 2025-26 season goes off the rails, like one or more of the above mentioned will be the reason why.