Where does Stroud rank among NFL starting quarterbacks?
Everyone knows I love statistics and I love what statistics can tell us. There is no greater controversial topic in the NFL than ranking quarterbacks. Usually, it is simplistic analysis that leaves out relevant information that can help us. This article is going to be thorough and hopefully enlightening as the Houston Texans tack forward. Make no mistake, C.J. Stroud is the quarterback of the future, but these numbers could tell us a lot about what he needs to work on and maybe who should be working with him.
I’ll start by outlining my methodology. I started by picking the 32 quarterbacks over the last two years with the most starts. That means that Drake Maye takes a backseat even though he is technically the New England Patriots starter. Instead, we went with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. We looked at only the games that they played with passing yards per game, TD%, INT%, completion PCT, TD/INT ratio, yards per attempt, and attempts per sack.
There are really three ways to look at these numbers are far as Stroud is concerned and we will do all of it. First, we can simply compare him with the average in each category that the 32 quarterbacks put up. If he is average or above in every category then he is an above average quarterback. If he is average or below then he is average or below. We will start there. The average will be in parentheses. His ranking amongst the 32 quarterbacks is also there as well.
Yards Per Game: 244.8 (228.2) (11th)
Completion PCT: 63.5 (65.3) (25th)
TD%: 5.5 (4.7) (10th)
INT%: 2.2 (2.1) (20th)
TD/INT: 2.50 (2.24) (15th)
YPA: 7.60 (7.21) (8th)
Sack%: 11.46 (14.88) (23rd)
We are off to a good start here. Stroud is better than the average score in every category except completion percentage, interception percentage, and attempts per sack. I see some immediate ties between those numbers, but we also need to look at our third tests before we get to the implications. I would point out that he was only top ten in two categories, so anyone arguing that Stroud is a top ten quarterback has a lot of heavy lifting to do.
The composite ranking is 16th amongst those various categories. That feels a lot closer to the truth. I might be tempted to put him a few spots higher in the ranking, but I think we know what we are dealing with. Our last test is something I am borrowing from the baseball world. Similarity scores are a Bill James invention used to compare players with other players that are similar.
So, what we are doing is looking at each category individually and comparing Stroud with the quarterbacks closest to him in each category. The idea is that the names we see repeatedly are the guys most similar to him. Obviously then we can get an idea of which tier he fits into and whether we are comfortable with him as that kind of quarterback. I’ll also have a bonus graph at the end.
Every analyst has to start off by admitting by the limitations of a table. I did not include any rushing information. However, I should also note that the quarterbacks are listed in the order of who is the most similar. Jordan Love feels like the best comparison to Stroud even when you consider the rushing side of things. Matthew Stafford also feels like a similar quarterback statistically.
What you can’t necessarily see (but is part of the chart) are the number of passing attempts per sack. Stafford ends up being very similar to Stroud in that department as well. Interestingly, Love and Josh Allen are the two hardest quarterbacks in the league to get down over the past two seasons. If Stroud would like to take the next step and be considered in line with guys like Allen it would seem that the best thing that can happen is to find a way for him to stay upright.
This is where the bonus table comes into play. Right now, there are more than a handful of quarterbacks destined to be replaced by their teams. We excluded Kirk Cousins because he has already been replaced and his numbers don’t fit well. He kind of hit a wall towards the end of the season, so his two year numbers still look pretty good. Otherwise, here are seven quarterbacks that will either be replaced or are in danger of being replaced. Let’s see if we notice some things.
Again, the attempts per sack appears to be cut off, but that might be the immediate takeaway here. A handful of quarterbacks were sacked more often than Stroud. Other than Stafford, most of them are on this list. From here we can go in one of two directions. It depends on whether you want to blame the quarterback or if you want to blame the team for ruining the quarterback.
The first group would say the quarterback holds the ball for too long and puts himself in harm’s way. The other group will say the offensive line is terrible or the receivers aren’t good enough to get open. Both of them can be true and false all at the same time. What we know is that bad quarterbacks all have some things in common when we look at the numbers. First, their completion percentages trend on the lower end.
Secondly, their touchdown percentages tend to be low and their interception rates tend to be higher. That causes their TD/INT to be terrible. Stroud obviously isn’t in this category. However, when you compare him to the elite in the sport, you notice he is trailing in these categories. Ironically, the answer to the question of avoiding sacks and raising your completion percentage lies in the same thing.
Stroud was tied for fifth in the average amount of time he held the ball. He also was in the top ten in the average distance his throws travelled through the air. Add in all of the sacks and that tells me he needs to dump the ball off more. He needs to find his safe receiver and find him quicker. That will do three things for him and the Texans. First, it obviously will keep him upright longer. That ends up killing fewer drives by avoiding falling behind the sticks.
When you dump the ball off you also complete a higher percentage of those passes. That ends up raising your overall completion percentage. That will likely get Stroud up around the league average in that category. The last point is that these plays gain positive yards and therefore you are more than likely to get more first downs and therefore more points.
So, while the Texans certainly can get a new offensive line coach and a couple of new linemen, they also can coach up their quarterback to get rid of the ball quicker. One of three things is most likely here. The first possibility is that Stroud is getting that message and they are calling plays to get rid of the ball quickly, but he is failing to do so for one reason or another. Secondly, they are calling the right plays, but the coaches are not effectively teaching him to get rid of it quickly. Finally, they aren’t calling plays conducive to him getting rid of the ball quickly.
Two out of three of those scenarios are on the coaches. Before the Texans start paying Stroud 50 or 60 million a season, I would love to know whether it is the coaching or him. The Texans don’t take the next step until Stroud takes the next step. Stroud likely doesn’t take the next step with the coaches we have in house. It is time to find a new voice for the offense and quarterback room.