What does a turnaround for the Texans.
All analysis has to be balanced. People don’t trust anyone that is relentlessly positive, but they also won’t trust anyone relentlessly negative. I am always hypersensitive to being negative. I usually lean towards being a critic rather than being a cheerleader. I have am a worry wart by nature. I will worry any situation to death.
All that belies a simple fact about team sports. Even in the worst of seasons there are positive surprises that come from it. 2023 was full of these surprises and those surprises helped propel the Houston Texans to the playoffs. There were also negative surprises. There were players that were expected to play integral roles or expected to improve under the new regime. They did not and their lack of improvement was conspicuous in a season where everyone else seemed to get better.
However, no one is doomed to failure. Sometimes people just have a bad season. Sometimes coaching staffs can’t employ everyone in the position they will be the most successful in. Sometimes necessities crop up that force offenses and defenses to play guys out of position.
Enter Jalen Pitre. Coming into his pro career, he was seen as a guy that played better in the box than someone in coverage. Due to the talents of other guys on the roster (notably Desmond King and Tavierre Thomas) they decided to play him in a more traditional safety role. Unfortunately, it didn’t go well. Pitre followed up a rookie campaign where he had five interceptions with zero.
Late in the season, he was even benched because he struggled in coverage. While not everyone trusts PFF, their numbers do tell a story. We can split a safety’s performance based on their scores against the run, in pass coverage, and when blitzing the quarterback. Jalen Pitre’s tell a clear story.
Pitre Against the Run: 62.4
Pitre As a Pass Rusher: 64.5
Pitre in Pass Coverage: 61.6
The good news is that he seemed to be equal in all three, but those scores were the scores of a guy that is a rotational player and not a solid starter. What was alarming is that he wasn’t any better than he was during his rookie season. Many expected him to elevate himself to Pro Bowl status. That didn’t happen.
2022 Overall PFF Grade: 57.1
2023 Overall PFF Grade: 61.8
Well well well. Often times our perception of things is different from the reality of things. Pitre was a better all around safety in 2023 than he was in 2022 despite the gaudy interception numbers. So, while he did not improve as much as people hoped he would, he did in fact improve.
Furthermore, even if he improves just as much in 2024 as he did in 2023 then his grade will approach that of a typical starting safety. The question is whether he has the chops to improve again and become a legitimate starting safety. There are a couple of reasons for optimism.
Year Two (Three)
While it is Pitre’s third season in the league, it is his second in this defense. We often focus on quarterbacks when they get new offensive coordinators or offensive head coaches, but we rarely ever focus on defensive players. We probably just assumed that Pitre would make the adjustment or even get better because we assumed that DeMeco Ryans’ defense would be better than Lovie Smith’s defense.
It legitimately was better, but what is also true is that no offense or defense is universally better for every single player across the board. They likely asked him to do some things he had not done the previous season. So, even though he wasn’t a rookie it probably felt like he was one at times.
Now, he gets an entire offseason in the same defense. He will be used to the terminology. He will be used to the philosophy. Even if they use him in the exact same way, it is more likely that he will succeed more often. Hopefully, he will get to the point that he can play with his instincts and not having to think his way through it.
Other Healthy Options
Jimmie Ward wasn’t healthy for most of the season. He was brought in to play the deep safety role. Without a healthy Ward, Pitre played in that role or had to support more than they probably would have liked. Will Ward be healthier in 2024? That’s an excellent question. However, the team did draft Calen Bullock and re-sign Eric Murray and Lonnie Johnson in the hopes that at least one of them can provide better depth at that position.
While the PFF numbers don’t indicate this, conventional wisdom would suggest that if Pitre can play more in the box then he can get a better feel for what he needs to do to be successful. If he consistently supports against the run and on underneath passing routes then he can perform better because he is playing in a more specialized role. When you ask him to do less then he can do that better.
What’s the upshot?
I feel like the Pro Bowl is a bit out of reach at this point, but anything can happen. What is very attainable is being better than 50 percent of the starting safeties in the NFL. A large part of teams overachieving is having players overachieve. It isn’t enough to simply add better players. You have to have existing players play better. Jalen Pitre is a very good candidate to be one of those players.