Did Nick Caserio ruin our night?
We should probably begin by talking about how ridiculous the NFL draft is as an event. The NFL as a whole and the media surrounding it could teach a masters class in monetizing the mundane and make people go nuts just waiting for it. Obviously, you are here to hear commentary about the Texans draft (or non-draft as it were), but a cold calculation of draft assets cannot possibly encapsulate what we all just sat through.
Let’s begin by acknowledging how different this night was for Texans fans. They traded out of the first round last season weeks before. The two seasons before were early drafts because the team was coming off of horrible records. Then, there was the abyss that was the 2021 draft. The Texans didn’t have any selections until the third round AND the team sucked.
This night came with expectations. This night came with hopes. Usually a good football team is pretty well stacked in their first 22. Teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens were looking to add quality depth. Texans fans were in desperation mode. They wanted a lineman. So, we were sitting on the edge of our seats hoping certain guys would fall.
The Surreal Moments
There were three surreal moments that jump off the page for me that highlight the anticipation and silliness of the evening. The first was the very opening. As you might imagine, the gang got together for a private chat during the whole thing and I can tell you a few choice words were spoken when the NFL brass rode out on bikes and made an impromptu announcement from the president of the United States.
Kudos to Roger Goodell for finally embracing the hate though. It seems like he finally gets it. The second moment came when two NFL Network anchors came out to make a special announcement. They were there to announce that the NFL would announce their schedule on May 14th. Did we really need fanfare for this moment? It was basically saying, “we would like to announce that we have made a decision about when we are making our decision. Oh, and buy this product.”
Finally, we got to the host of the proceedings. When it was time to make their pick, the CEO of the Packers went all Cory Booker and held the mic for what seemed like thirty minutes. It would be heartless to say no one there wanted to hear his life story or the story of the Packers. After all, I’m sure a plurality of those in attendance were Packers fans. However, I am reasonably certain that 98 percent of those watching were screaming, “go ahead and make the pick jackass” at their televisions.
A hostage to the moment
If you are judging clearly on entertainment value and putting ALL of your faith in pundits, it was a horrible night for the Texans. Every single player they could have possibly wanted was gone by pick 25 save for one. Some people had the Texans picking Josh Simmons in their mocks. It made some sense. He played for the national champions and had certain measurables and skills that could translate to the next level.
However, beginning with Kelvin Banks, it seemed like all of their guys were going and sooner than they thought. Even if the Texans wanted to go wide receiver, both of their targets were gone by the time the Packers ended up drafting. Obviously, there was talk of moving up, but realistically both of their offensive line targets went before they could reasonably move up.
They could have moved up for one of the receivers, but that would probably have been blasted in the media given everyone’s desire for a lineman. If you are looking for an analysis without substance (which is all any of this is) then it was the worst possible scenario for the Texans.
Is it a good trade?
There is a so-called point system that rates these things. Everything gets reduced to a math equation these days. If you go by the chart, we got good value for the 25th pick. The Texans get an additional third this season and next season. That means they have five selections in the second and third round today and a total of seven selections before the end of the fourth round next season.
This deal comes down to Josh Conerly and Josh Simmons. If either of them become a good tackle (or guard) at the next level this won’t look good. If the Texans do not get a good player at 34 this deal will look awful. It will be reminiscent of the 2022 draft when the Texans passed on Kyle Hamilton and traded back to get Kenyon Green. That one smarts but it smarts because they passed on a Pro Bowl player and selected a dud.
These two football players are really the only two that matter because they fit a position the Texans needed. It all depends on how DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio graded those particular players. Since they were both available at 25, it is clear that they did not think highly of them. Are they right? Only time will tell.
I won’t do this now because I’ve held the mic way too long, but you can go back as far back as you want to see that picking nearly every position is a crapshoot. People seem so sure right now. It will all come out in the wash. What the Texans did is either guarantee themselves two additional football players, or two additional assets to move up to get more football players. We can probably guarantee that this will not be the last time this team maneuvers in this draft. While it feels like a wasted night, any night spent with friends is not wasted. Hopefully, Texans fans got to spend it with some of their friends.