What if the Texans traded for Tee Higgins instead?
When the calendar sits in June, the NFL is in kind of a dead period. That affords us the opportunity to play what if. We did this last week with Joe Mixon and now it is time to do it with Stefon Diggs. One of the options available to the Houston Texans this offseason was a trade for Tee Higgins. The explanation at the time made perfect sense. It would be for only one year and since he got the franchise tag, the price tag would be very high.
It’s funny how time kind of turns things on its head. Diggs was effectively given a one year deal for 22 million dollars while Higgins has the franchise tag for 21.8 million. Obviously, we don’t know if the Cincinnati Bengals would have taken the same trade as the Buffalo Bills. A 2025 second round pick feels light for a player of that caliber and certainly you could consider Diggs a distressed asset. However, let’s suspend disbelief for a moment and look at their numbers over the last four seasons (the time Higgins has been in the league).
Conventional Numbers
Diggs: 644 targets. 445 catches, 5,372 yards, 37 TD
Higgins: 403 targets, 257 catches, 3,684 yards, 24 TD
These numbers seem simple enough. Diggs is obviously on another level when we simply look at the basics here. For most fans, nothing goes beyond the basics and the basics say that Diggs has been a top five receiver in the NFL over the past four years. Higgins of course has played with another one of those guys. So, the situations are not analogous.
What we also know is that there are numbers inside the numbers that need to be considered. Diggs is a higher volume guy because he had to be. How efficient were these guys? That’s when we start looking at the rate statistics. Maybe they tell a different story. In this case we are looking at catch percentage, yards per target, and success percentage.
Success percentage is the only one that isn’t obvious. It simply calculates the percentage of targets that wind up getting the yardage necessary to move the chains. So, it is a graduating standard that changes depending on down and distance. It is intuitive though because we know certain receivers are good at moving the chains where others are more home run type guys.
Rate Statistics
Diggs: 69.0 catch percentage, 8.3 YPT, 59.8 success rate
Higgins: 63.8 catch percentage, 9.1 YPT, 58.6 success rate
These numbers look a little more similar and show two receivers that have vastly different styles. Higgins is more of a downfield threat than Diggs. However, their success rates are very similar, so the gap is not as big as people would think. From here, it becomes a question of how each would fit into the offense. What exactly is needed from them and what would they bring?
Diggs is a move the chains kind of guy. Nico Collins is more of a run after the catch kind of receiver along the lines of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel. Tank Dell is more of that traditional deep threat that can stretch the defenses, so it would appear that Diggs would be a better fit if he is willing to play that role.
Per 15 Games Numbers
Diggs: 146 targets, 107 catches, 1,221 yards, 8 TD
Higgins: 104 targets. 66 catches, 953 yards, 6 TD
I like using the per 15 data because it boils down the numbers into what a typical season might look like. It assumes that the player will be reasonably healthy, but miss a game or two because of bumps and bruises. Higgins has missed some time in recent seasons while Diggs has not. Yet. Diggs is older so we could probably predict a game or two here and there.
Unfortunately, these numbers also assume that Diggs will be the same kind of high volume receiver that he was in Buffalo. So, I will introduce one more category of numbers that will likely crystallize the numbers both would likely have in this offense. With Collins, Dell, Joe Mixon, and Dalton Schultz all in the offense, it is likely that Diggs won’t get the targets he got in Buffalo.
Per 100 Targets
Diggs: 69 catches, 830 yards, 6 TD
Higgins: 64 catches, 910 yards, 6 TD
These numbers are a lot more compact, so it makes this situation a lot more fluid and one that is interesting to watch. Both players have a similar incentive to perform this season. Higgins might be a better position to put up better numbers because he would only be sharing with JaMarr Chase. There are more guys to share the football in Houston.
The flip side is that Diggs will have to adjust to not being the primary target. It is still unknown how that would work where bringing in a Higgins would have been a more seamless transition. It is the human factor that is unknown here. Looking purely at the numbers, the Texans made the better choice if the choice is only for one season. The personalities involved make it much more complicated.