How do the Chargers and Texans compare?
I make no bones about the fact that I love numbers. Numbers can help bring order to the chaos. In this case of football, we can look at the upcoming battle between the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans as a potentially lopsided battle between two teams going in two different directions.
You can also look at it as two fairly evenly matched teams that ultimately are fairly similar in how they choose to beat you. The wise guys have the opening line as Chargers by three. That’s pretty significant since most experts tend to give between two and three points for home field advantage. So, on a neutral field the Chargers would be nearly a touchdown favorite according to the odds makers.
The numbers might tell us something different as we look at the same numbers we look at following each game. We will break this into two sections. The first section will be the Chargers offense versus the Texans offense and the second section will see the two defenses collide.
The Offenses
Total Yards: Texans 5,435 (319.7), Chargers 5,511 (324.2)
Rushing Yards: Texans 1,909 (112.3), Chargers 1,882 (110.7)
Passing Yards: Texans 3,526 (207.4), Chargers 3,629 (213.5)
Sacked: Texans Texans 54 (3.2), Chargers 44 (2.6)
Turnovers: Texans 19 (1.1), Chargers 9 (0.5)
Penalties: Texans 119/981, Chargers 96/718
Total Points: Texans 372 (21.9), Chargers 402 (23.6)
You can see the personalities of the coaches inside the numbers. This is especially true when looking at successful teams. The offenses are almost identical in terms of rushing and passing yards. You don’t see a real difference until you get to the next three categories. The Chargers do a better job of keeping their quarterback upright, avoiding turnovers, and avoiding penalties. Geez, it’s almost like those three things are kind of related.
However, both teams are fairly similar in the turnover ratio. The Texans are +10 and the Chargers are +12. It seems rather simplistic. but it probably will come down to turnovers and which team can create more turnovers and do a better job avoiding them. If the Texans feel average then it is not a passing thing. They scored 372 points on the season. They allowed 372 points on the season. By sheer definition they performed better in one score games than most teams.
The Chargers amassed 402 points on the season. Of course, we will get to the points allowed portion of the proceedings here in a minute. Obviously, complementary football is a thing, but we should note that of the 13 other playoff teams, 12 scored more points on the season than your hometown eleven (the Rams were the guilty party). So, if it seems that the Texans just don’t score points efficiently there is probably a good reason for that.
The Defenses
Total Yards: Texans 5,355 (315.0), Chargers 5,514 (324.4)
Rushing Yards: Texans 1,938 (114.), Chargers 1,997 (117.5)
Passing Yards: Texans 3,417 (201.0), Chargers 3,517 (206.9)
Sacks: Texans 49 (2.9), Chargers 46 (2.7)
Turnovers: Texans 29 (1.7), Chargers 21 (1.2)
Points Allowed: Texans 372 (21.9), Chargers 301 (17.7)
Three playoff teams allowed more points than the Texans. If you combined that with their offensive output you would be forgiven for thinking they were the weakest of all of the playoff teams. The Chargers were very efficient defensively. Even though they surrendered more yards than the Texans on the ground AND through the air, they still surrendered nearly four points per game fewer.
Granted. a large part of that is likely the astronomically low turnover level on offense. When you force teams to drive the length of the field it will be more difficult for them to score. However, they also minimized the big plays where the Texans struggled to do that. The combination likely explains the point differential. The Chargers were first in points allowed on the season, so scoring on them might be a challenge.
If we look at negative plays, the Texans have a giant advantage. If we combine sacks and turnovers into a kind of big defensive play matrix you can see the philosophy behind the DeMeco Ryans defense. You also will see the Texans path to victory most weeks. They have routinely made opposing quarterbacks miserable. They will need to do that to Justin Herbert in order to win on Saturday.
Adding it all up
Like I said above, I love numbers. I love numbers because they usually back up the feelings that we have. In the case of the Texans, there just a feeling that they are inefficient and don’t capitalize on the good things they do. Their offense doesn’t score as much points as it seems they should and the defense seemingly gives up more points than it should.
If you look at baseball, experts use something called Pythagorean method to judge the quality of a team. The difference between runs scored and runs allowed will predict your overall record. If a team is considerably underperforming or overperforming then you will eventually see those trends level out. Below is a look at your seven AFC playoffs teams according to that.
Kansas City Chiefs: 385 points for, 326 points against = +59
Buffalo Bills: 525 points for, 368 points against = +157
Baltimore Ravens: 518 points for, 361 points against = +157
Houston Texans: 372 points for, 372 points against = 0
Los Angeles Chargers: 402 points for, 301 points against = +101
Pittsburgh Steelers: 380 points for, 347 points against = +33
Denver Broncos: 425 points for, 311 points against = +114
Point differential isn’t the end-all be-all of human existence, but it is a telling statistic. For one, it does show that the Chiefs path to the Super Bowl might not be as clear as we might think. If the Chargers prevail on Saturday, they will play two teams with better differentials than them. Secondly, the Texans are dead-ass last (DAL) in that category. In fact, only the Los Angeles Rams are worse.
This might be more of an offseason conversation, but the narrative that the Texans are just one or two players away from being a dominant team is likely overblown. They are much more likely to take a step back based on what is currently in the building. Fortunately they will have free agency and the draft to help fill in some holes, but they have further to go than the other AFC playoff teams.