What was the good, bad, and ugly from Sunday’s last second win?
“To be is to do.” — Socrates
This feature every week comes with a certain theme. Good, bad, or ugly you are what you do. We are going to hit this theme pretty hard this week as we are seeing some very distinct patterns with this football team. Obviously you can’t be 4-1 without some of those patterns being good. However, there are some concerning patterns that will rear their ugly head
The genesis of this feature was to look at the things that constantly impact winning and losing. Unfortunately (or fortunately), those normal predictors have gone out the window so far. However, there is always truth in numbers if you dig deep enough. Let’s do some digging.
Key Statistics
Total Yards: Houston Texans 67/425, Buffalo Bills 59/276
Rushing Yards: Texans 28/94, Bills 28/150
Passing Yards: Texans 39/331, Bills 31/126
Sacks: Texans 1, Bills 1
Turnovers: Texans 2, Bills 0
Penalties: Texans 7/65, Bills 4/25
Time of Possession: Texans 33:10, Bills 26:50
Another week and another game where the Texans clearly dominate in every statistical category except for three: final score, turnovers, and penalties. Otherwise, this was a fairly dominant effort by a football team that is clearly talented and mostly well coached. We will get to the mostly part shortly.
The Good
Referencing the opening quote, there comes a time when repeated occurrences cease being luck and become something significant. Critics of the Texans’ defense will point out that quarterbacks are missing wide open receivers and that the Texans have gotten lucky that those quarterbacks haven’t performed well.
However, when all but one quarterback (Sam Darnold) has their worst game of the year (and perhaps worst career game in Allen’s case) then your defense is actually doing something to make that happen. You don’t luck into four quarterbacks all having a bad day at the office. You did something to make them have a bad day.
On the season, the Texans have one of the better pressure rates on the season, so even though they aren’t necessarily bringing the quarterbacks down, they are pressuring them and breaking their rhythm. The back end has had some negative flashes were guys get open, but by and large they are doing a good job in coverage. It is hard to imagine a Josh Allen quarterbacked team looking that awful for much of the game, but they did.
The Bad
When pundits talk about the Texans offense they talk about how things don’t seem to be quite clicking yet. Through five games of the season, the Texans are fifth in total yards. They lead the NFL in passing yards. Obviously, they are struggling on the ground, but this is a top NFL offense in nearly every statistical category. The main one they are trailing in is points scored. They are 17th in the NFL in points scored. That is as average as you can get.
I hate the term complimentary football. It gives me PTSD from the O’Brien era, but there is a point there. This team hasn’t turned over their opponent since the Bears game. So, you are making the offense drive the ball down the length of the field. However, mixed liberally in there are key penalties and turnovers.
When you were up 14-3 you were driving with a chance to make it either 17-3 or 21-3 when C.J. Stroud throws only his third interception of the year and first one at home since we can’t remember when. When you driving at the end of the game you had a key intentional grounding penalty that takes you out of field goal range. If you go up on the Bills 21-3 and perhaps 24-3 at the half this turns into an entirely different football game. Yes, I am complaining during a win. I am complaining because it wasn’t as lopsided as I think it should be. I know how all of that sounds. What I also know is that close games are unpredictable. Don’t make it close when it doesn’t need to be.
The Ugly
Joe Mixon has missed the last three games. There is no accounting for that. He had been fairly durable in his time in Cincinnati so it isn’t like bringing in an often injured Saquon Barkley or Christian McCaffrey. However, this run game is inconsistent at best and bad at worst. Yes, Cam Akers looked terrific on his touchdown run and he has generally been good considering he is supposed to be the third string guy.
Dare Ogunbowale has looked good in limited time as well as the fourth back. I suppose we should grade on a curve when the team is without Mixon and Dameon Pierce. Maybe it is time to invest more draft capital in a back that can handle the load if/when one of these guys is out. It seems like our guys miss more time than not.
The stat sheet says the Texans gained 94 yards on 28 carried. That’s 3.35 yards per carry as it stands. When you remove Stroud’s 27 yards on three carries (since those weren’t planned runs) then you get 67 yards on 25 carries. You’ve run the ball well in one football game this year. Yes, we have injuries. Yes, we have excuses, but you are what you do. You can say you are a ball control team until you are blue in the face, but that doesn’t make it so. With the exception of a handful of carries (notably the Akers touchdown) rushing the football on Sunday was a wasted down. Continually giving your quarterback third and eight and third and nine because you can’t run the football is a problem. Eventually you either fix it or start chucking it around the yard all day.