A critical look back at Texans trends
A number of us have already said our piece on the upcoming draft. Obviously, given the direction of the offseason, more emphasis has been put on the draft since it has been seen as what will put the finishing touches on this roster. There are a number of position groups that feel purposefully incomplete. That puts way too much pressure on Nick Caserio and company to finish off those units.
There are a couple of things that should be said by me and me specifically. I am not going to wax on about specific draft prospects. Others have covered draft prospects on this site and I invite you to read all of their commentary. I am what you would call a casual college football fan. I follow my Horned Frogs fairly religiously. My daughter is going to go to LSU next year, so I’ll probably pay attention to them. I’ll watch a few big games and that will be about it.
The second and most important point is the point of opportunity costs. I have mentioned it before in these spaces, but if you are just joining us then a quick tutorial is in order. Essentially, it is the economics concept that before a decision is made there are a whole multitude of options. Every player is literally available at a certain price. You could trade up to number one if you want to foot the bill. You could stick and pick. You can trade back.
The difficulty with opportunity costs is that the end result is never as good as all the possibilities. The options are endless but the end result is finite. In all likelihood, the Texans can upgrade two or three positions on draft day. So, the question becomes what is the best use of the resources available to them to make that happen. So, what follows are some rules of thumb I have based purely on the past.
Don’t fall in love with a specific position
Somewhere in my head is the gif of the religious zealot running around and screaming “oh my God, we are all going to die!” right before running head first into a pole. We’ve all seen the draft reports and we have all been covering this ad nauseam. The Texans look weak up and front. We all know this and we have all been saying this. Admittedly, I have not written nearly as much this offseason as past offseasons. Nothing much has changed to necessitate a ton of commentary.
The biggest mistakes this team has made on draft day came when they decided they had to have a specific position. Usually that has been offensive line. Kenyon Green comes to mind. Juice Scruggs comes to mind. Heck, even Tytus Howard comes to mind. While Howard has been functional and sometimes solid, he wasn’t exactly a home run pick and his selection came out of desperation because the guy they supposedly wanted was picked right before them.
The worst thing this team can do at number 25 is pick a lineman because we simply have to have a lineman. We don’t need a lineman THAT badly. What we need is a good football player. What we need is a football player that can either be a starter now or at least a rotational player with starter potential down the road. There are very few positions that couldn’t use at least quality depth. If the lineman is the best guy on the board then you pick him. Reaching for a lineman just because you think you need a lineman puts you right back in the same Green/Scruggs/Howard/Fisher box that you were in before.
Falling in love with a specific player is not a bad thing
Nick Caserio has demonstrated two things in his time as general manager. First, he is not afraid to make significant moves to vault himself up the draft board. Secondly, those decisions have usually been right. He has made two significant trade ups that I can recall since become general manager. He moved up a ton to get Nico Collins in round three in his first year as general manager. He moved heaven and earth to move up to get Will Anderson two years ago. I’d say both of those were successful moves.
Obviously, there have been other times where he has moved up and down on draft day. Scruggs came as a result of moving up. However, that one felt more like “oh my God, we gotta have a lineman” than “Oh my God, we love Juice Scruggs!” Of course, that is just my feeling on the situation. I could be wrong and I seriously doubt anyone inside the organization would echo my sentiments on that move.
Remember the stated goal up front. We want three players in this draft that will either be starters or significant contributors moving forward. The 2024 draft saw Kamari Lassiter, Calen Bullock, and either Blake Fisher or Cade Stover. That’s two starters and two rotational players. If you repeat that performance then you are in excellent shape. That actually becomes easier when you identify guys you love and go after them.
How do we react?
A part of the cottage industry of NFL commentary is the obligatory post-draft grades. They are pure nonsense. I say this as someone that will absolutely be participating in that process. Remember what I said about my knowledge of college football. All I can reasonably do is pass on what scouts have said about specific prospects. That amounts to nothing more than second hand guessing.
No one has a crystal ball. Also, remember the stated goal. We want three or four players that can reasonably be rotational players and possible starters someday. That is how NFL teams sustain their level of success. For instance, the Texans may not need a running back, tight end, or defensive tackle in the same way they need a guard, wide receiver, or guard, or say another guard. However, if those players become rotational players then you are a better football team. That is better than picking a guy that won’t be a good guard, guard, guard, wide receiver, or guard.
You’ll notice the gratuitous repetition of the word guard. That is my biggest fear. It would seem obvious that you have to pick one or two. Heck, throw in a center for good measure. While the need is obvious, you can burn yourself by forcing a prospect that might not be as good as a guy at another position. No team is in position to turn down good football players no matter the position. I want three or four more good football players out of this draft. I care more that they are good and not so much what position they play.