What could a healthy campaign look like for the talented tight end?
I promised a series of these and silly free agency and trade news got in the way. So, here is the second installment of the “making the leap” series. Today’s feature looks at enigmatic tight end Brevin Jordan. At his very best, Jordan has tantalized Texans’ brass with an impressive combination of speed and power at the tight end position. At his worst, Jordan simply isn’t there.
Based on his first few seasons in the league, Jordan earned himself a nickname we use around these parts. We call him Mr. December. In four NFL seasons, he has 53 total receptions. 28 of those receptions have come in December. If he could somehow replicate that production throughout the other three months of the season then he could be an impressive tight end.
Why has that happened? In his first three years they just didn’t feel like they could trust him. None of us were in the building so we really don’t know why that was the case. He played in every game in December in his first three seasons, but never played more than seven games in any other month over the course of four seasons.
So, this exists in two parts. The first question is to simply look at what happens if he is healthy and in the game. What I like to do is look at a per 15 game average. It assumes players miss a game or two due to bumps and bruises but are otherwise healthy. We are simply taking his 36 total games played and prorating that over 15 games.
36 games, 80 targets, 53 receptions, 532 yards, 5 TD
While we convert these numbers into per 15 game numbers, we should take a look at what the other two tight ends are doing as well. We will look at catch percentage and yards per target as well. We will do that over the same timeframe as Jordan (or just last year in the case of Stover).
Dalton Schultz: 64 games, 366 targets, 247 receptions, 2552 yards, 20 TD
Cade Stover: 15 games, 22 targets, 15 receptions, 133 yards, 1 TD
Obviously, Schultz’s numbers jump off the page. However, there is a difference between volume and quality. He has been productive largely because he has been healthy and because his usage rate is up. However, let’s take a look at what happens per 15 games and when we look at catch percentage and yards per target.
Schultz: 86 targets, 58 receptions, 67.4 catch%, 598 yards, 6.95 yards per target
Jordan: 33 targets, 22 receptions, 66.7 catch%, 222 yards, 6.73 yards per target
Stover: 22 targets, 15 receptions, 68.2 catch%, 133 yards, 6.05 yards per target
When you look at the numbers on only a per target basis, you will notice that Jordan is almost equal to Schultz. The best thing that football teams (or any team in any sport) can do is do the best they can to match usage with actual production. That seems so simple it borders on silly, but often things like money get in the way. Schultz is the highest paid tight end by a wide margin, so there is a natural tendency to want to justify that contract.
He is a little better as a wide receiver than Jordan, but the gap is not that significant. While PFF is not the end all be all of human existence, it is a decent barometer of everything football players do. Jordan was a higher rated tight end in his limited snaps. This was largely because he had reasonable 59.0 and 64.3 pass and run blocking grades respectively. Neither of those grades are great or even good necessarily, but we have to compare them with Schultz’s 33.3 and 54.7 in the same categories. Stover graded out at 23.8 and 63.0 in the same categories.
If we translate that into English, we would see that Jordan is an average blocker in pass protection. Schultz and Stover were abysmal blockers in pass protection. We don’t need PFF to tell us that. We saw it with our own eyes. So, if you have a guy that can be passable while blocking AND almost as productive a wide receiver then maybe he should get a bulk of the playing time.
If healthy, Jordan’s usage could go way up and Schultz’s usage could go way down. It would seem like they would want Schultz in obvious passing situations and that might still be true, but with the tackle play likely taking a step back, they will need to support them with willing blockers. Jordan is a willing blocker. Schultz is not.
We know that Nick Caley is a former tight ends coach. That hopefully will translate into more attention being paid to the position. Hopefully, we will see growth from all three players, but it also means that they may become more featured parts of the offense. The Patriots loved two tight end sets and I imagine we will see some of that next season. Here is hoping we see a healthy Jordan and improved Stover.