Who are some of the players that need to break out?
Since it is officially the off-season, it is high time that we take a step back and run through some scenarios that we wouldn’t have time for in the regular season. So, we are bringing back the emphasis mini-series. In this case, we are looking at existing players on the roster that could potentially break out.
If you are having a hard time imagining what this looks like then just imagine Nico Collins in 2023 or Henry To’o’To’o in 2024. Every player makes improvements from season to season, but usually they are small and incremental. Occasionally, someone average or even below average becomes very good overnight.
This series will focus almost exclusively on offense because it has to. The defense ranked in the top ten in nearly every category. If they make tiny improvements and a few key additions through the draft and street free agency they will probably be a Super Bowl-level defense. The offense ranked in the bottom third. They need the most help.
The team’s cap situation isn’t helping. They are currently four million under the cap. Naturally, the cap will go up once the new league year starts and the team can jettison a few players here and there, but the Houston Texans are not spending their way out of this problem. They likely will be able to afford one key free agent or two and will rely on the draft and more minor free agents to get them over the top.
They also will rely on the players currently in the building to step up and play better. This series is focused on those guys. For instance, the Texans have one starting receiver in the building right now. Stefon Diggs is likely playing somewhere else and Tank Dell is likely out for the bulk of the 2025 season. Maybe you sign a guy or make some sort of trade, but that still leaves a spot or two that needs to improve.
Enter John Metchie. As a second round pick, a whole lot more was expected from him. Just as a comparison, Collins and Dell were selected in the third round. Metchie has come nowhere near that impact. Obviously, this is not all on him. He developed cancer in what would have been his rookie season, so that season was completely lost. None of us have any idea how much those treatments took out of him. He was also recovering from a torn ACL coming out of Alabama, so the combination could explain the drop in production.
2023: 30 targets, 16 catches, 158 yards, 0 TD, 53.3 catch%, 5.26 yards per target
2024: 37 targets, 24 catches, 254 yards, 1 TD, 64.9 catch%, 6.86 yards per target
So, there was actual growth there. We could easily assume more targets in 2025 with a slightly higher catch percentage. That could happen naturally or just as a function of how he might be used in a new offense. I could imagine something along the lines of 50 targets with 35 catches. That would represent natural progression and an increase that is in line with someone being a continued part of the team.
I’d also guarantee that those numbers aren’t blowing anyone’s skirt up. They represent the numbers that a good fourth receiver would have in a three receiver offense. Those guys are great to have and a part of the Texans struggles is that no one served in that role for most of last season. However, there can be no doubt that the Texans need more than that.
One of the differences between the Bobby Slowik offense and Nick Caley offense will likely be the specialization of wide receivers. They will use a dedicated slot guy to accompany the two outside threats. Collins is one of those outside threats and the team might draft the other one in the first round. That leaves an open competition for the slot job.
Metchie’s issue has been that he hasn’t consistently gotten separation on the outside. In the slot, that isn’t as much of an issue. There are lesser corners playing inside and most teams resort to a zone, so you are looking for the soft spots in the zone. The yards per target might end up being different, but the catch percentage should also be higher.
More importantly, having such a receiver would be a vast improvement over most of what we saw last year. C.J. Stroud simply didn’t have a safety valve for much of the season and so he was heavily pressured and had to take those sacks. Having a Metchie as a consistent threat at the slot could help provide that hot receiver when Stroud is under pressure. If Metchie makes the jump up to 80 or 90 targets then he could get somewhere between 50 and 60 catches. No one will be calling Canton, Ohio anytime soon, but as a legitimate third wide receiver that’s pretty darn good. It just remains to be seen whether he is capable of making the jump to be that guy.