Is Christian Kirk the answer in the slot?
For the second time in two seasons, the Houston Texans are sending away their seventh round selection for veteran reinforcements. The 2025 edition of this game sees them trade seventh round selection in the 2025 draft for wide receiver Christian Kirk. Last season saw them trade a seventh rounder to the Cincinnati Bengals for running back Joe Mixon. I think we’d all agree that this would be a steal for the Texans if Kirk is even almost as good as Mixon was last season.
This trade exists in three different levels. First, there is the easy level of the pure deal itself. The Texans had one seventh rounder in their history that turned into a regular starter. Derek Newton was an able tackle for several seasons until he blew out both knees on the same play. That’s one in nearly 25 seasons. Obviously, odds are that the seventh rounder would never do anything of note for the Texans. So, let’s focus on the other two considerations.
Is he the right guy?
In order to do this, I am going to look at Stefon Diggs and Christian Kirk over the last three seasons. The whole idea is that Diggs was the most likely other choice at the time. We are ignoring the money situation for now because that is the second question. Obviously, volume is one thing that is unpredictable when you move from team to team. What we are focused on is the efficiency of production. So, we will look at total targets per 15 games, but we are more focused on catch percentage and yards per target.
Diggs: 138 targets, 96 catches, 69.6 Catch%, 1,137 yards, 8.24 yards per target
Kirk: 110 targets, 70 catches, 63.6 Catch%, 948 yards, 8.62 yards per target
Obviously, Diggs is not the only choice. This is a common logical fallacy. We could look at D.K. Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Devante Adams, and Cooper Kupp. We can look at them over the last three seasons as well using the same per 15 games rate.
Metcalf: 115 targets, 69 catches, 60.0 Catch%, 986 yards, 8.57 yards per target
Samuel: 92 targets, 58 catches, 63.0 Catch%, 765 yards, 8.32 yards per target
Adams: 155 targets, 90 catches, 58.1 Catch%, 1163 yards, 7.50 yards per target
Kupp: 133 targets, 91 catches, 68.4 Catch%, 1027 yards, 7.72 yards per target
Kirk may not be the best receiver in this group, but he seems to fit pretty well. In particular, he has been better over a per 15 game basis than Deebo Samuel. Samuel cost Washington a fifth rounder. I’d say the Texans got a much better deal than the Commanders did for the price. Of course, the price is when things get sticky.
What about the price?
At present, Kirk has a 16 million cap figure in 2025. Diggs made more than that last season. Samuel makes more than that for the Commanders. Kupp currently makes more than that, but he could be a cap casualty before too long. Adams already was a cap casualty and is likely to sign for nearly twice as much as Kirk is making next season.
This is also where the Texans may not be done. It didn’t take the Texans long to extend Joe Mixon last season after acquiring him from the Bengals. It is highly possible that Kirk could ink an extension that ends up lowering his 2025 cap number. Until we find out if that happens it is impossible to give this deal an ultimate grade.
The Final Analysis
There are sexy moves and there are smart moves. Picking up any of the names above other than Kirk would be a sexy move. Kirk has one 1,000 yard season to his name. He is not a number one wide receiver on a good team. Unfortunately for him, he has never played on a good team before. The Jags have one playoff appearance and were bounced in the second round. The Cardinals did not make it the postseason.
The Texans already have a number one wide receiver. They need a 70 or 80 catch guy. They don’t need a 100 catch guy. In order for this to be a home run, we would need to see what a restructured contract would look like. If they could get his cap number to around ten million a season they could definitely pair him with another wide receiver on the outside that could stretch the field.
Kirk is not that guy. He is the safety valve that C.J. Stroud so desperately needs, When you struggle to give your quarterback time then getting a receiver open faster is the best course of action. Kirk can be that guy. Add a speed guy to take the top off the defense and you can cover up for some deficiencies on the line.