A fling of fancy has given way to normal operations
There is risk in all things and a large part of life is about managing said risk. The Texans put 10-7 and AFC South champion seasons back to back. DeMeco could have uttered the infamous, “AFC South champions, Brian” line if he really wanted to. The team could continue to add pieces in the hope of milking out one or two more wins, but the most likely scenario would have been maintaining your position.
The most difficult place to be is being almost there. The Texans by most accounts are almost there. They aren’t the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills, but they are almost there. They are comfortably in that second group of AFC teams that could potentially make a run if everything falls into place. That group contains the Bengals, Steelers, Chargers, and Broncos. You could even credibly claim that the Texans are the best of that group of teams.
So, standing pat comes with risks. There is a risk that other teams will make dynamic moves and pass you by. The greater risk is simply playing out the four or five year window that you reasonably have and not quite being good enough. The city is starving for an AFC title game. They are the only team in the AFC South not to get there. Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans felt that standing pat was too risky.
However, making massive changes as they have is also risky. I feel pretty confident in predicting that the Texans will not be a ten win team again next season. Obviously, the odds of finishing with exactly ten wins three years in a row is low by itself, but given the significant moves they have made, they have either vaulted themselves forward or backward. Obviously, that by its very definition is risky.
While the moves appear unorthodox from a distance, they are really a return to the vision that Caserio had when he first took over. He wants competition. Coming into last season, it seemed that every position on the offensive side of the ball was taken. We knew who every starter was going to be. I think we know C.J. Stroud will be at quarterback, Joe Mixon will be at running back, and Nico Collins will be at wide receiver. We know Dalton Schultz will likely be the tight end. I’m sure Christian Kirk will be on the field either as a slot guy or another outside receiver. Beyond that, we know very little.
Can you with absolute certainty name the opening day left tackle? Sure, Cam Robinson feels like a decent bet, but we don’t know for sure. We also don’t know how anything will shake out specifically at any of the other positions. We have the candidates in house, but we don’t know how it will turn out. It will be a competition. Nick Caley will have to figure out what configuration will work the best. No jobs will be given to anyone.
That’s the way that Caserio and Ryans work best. That’s how SWARM works. You cannot have guys taking days off and being called a “vet’s vet.” Assuming you are healthy, you need to be suiting up and working just like everyone else. You do that by creating competition in as many slots as it is feasible to do so.
How to handle the draft
In the SB Nation draft, I was one of the folks that voted for Matthew Golden. A part of it is for the very practical reason that I think he is the better prospect, however it also goes into another mode of thinking. It is easy to just look at the line and blame EVERYTHING last season on the line. I get it. They are an easy target.
However, offense (and defense) has to exist holistically. You can achieve the same thing by scheming receivers open one second earlier as you can getting linemen that can sustain a block one second longer. Kirk obviously fits a part of that vision, but you need a deep threat on the outside to make that happen.
Additionally, this is not just about Golden specifically, but the idea of Golden. We need to get beyond the mode of thinking “we have to have a _______” and move into the best player available. The offense is definitely in more need than the defense, but if you find a can’t miss defensive tackle then suddenly you are elevating your defense from very good to absolutely elite. That means shorter fields, more turnovers, and ultimately more points.
The same could be said for running backs and tight ends. If we trust Caley to have some creativity then we need to give him the pieces he can be creative with. I will not be angry if they select a lineman first. Obviously, we need one or two more good ones. However, if they don’t pick one it isn’t the end of the world either.
Final Prediction
Obviously, it is way to early to set my over/under on the Texans season, but Vegas seems to be settling on 9.5 wins. I am pretty safe in asserting that they will not be 9-8 or 10-7. They are going higher or lower. It all depends on Caley and what he is able to cobble together offensively. There are pieces there, but it will be up to him to make the most of him.