We are breaking out the charts and graphs
In my last value of things I casually mentioned that I thought Bobby Slowik’s run as offensive coordinator should come to an end. An accusation of that sort shouldn’t just hang in the wind too long. An assertion like that deserves some evidence and it is time to bust out some evidence. Of course, a case like this likely won’t be made by itself in this one article, but let’s lay the groundwork.
I mentioned a statistic last time that deserves some exploration. Teams that win usually score efficiently. When they get inside the red zone they score six. This can be seen when we look at the yards per point. We looked at things strictly from the playoff perspective, but let’s see what happens when we compare the playoff teams and what they were able to do in the regular season.
Yards Per Point
I should point out that out of 14 playoff teams, the Texans were 13th in points scored. They were also 13th in yards. Yet, there were other teams that were similar in yards gained. In a 17 game schedule, the Chargers, Chiefs, Steelers, and Rams all came within 200 total yards of the Texans at the end of the day.
Of course, this by itself doesn’t prove anything. We can add a little bit of context by looking at teams that lost twelve or more games on the season. How efficient were they in putting points on the board? Do we see any similarities between those teams and the Texans?
Clearly, bad teams are inefficient. The Saints actually gained more yards than the Texans and scored fewer points. The Texans were a pedestrian 19th in points scored this season and 22nd in yards. So, they may actually be more efficient than the average team, but that can be attributed to a number of different things. They were one of the best teams at creating turnovers defensively and usually that means short fields or even defensive touchdowns. The Texans were fourth in defensive touchdowns on the season.
A part of the case that needs to be made comes when you look at the difference between the Texans 11 wins and their eight losses. We can look at the difference between their offensive numbers and their defensive numbers. Let’s just throw these numbers up and see what we notice.
Comparing Wins and Losses
These numbers are predictable. It is not until we compare with the losses that we can make any sense. Teams that win games normally outgain their opponents. Teams that win games normally coax more turnovers than they commit, The Texans created 21 turnovers in their wins. They committed 12 turnovers in those eleven wins.
Yet, we also notice that the yards per point totals were also lower in their eleven wins. A part of that is also that three of the four defensive touchdowns on the season came in their eleven wins. So, that has a way of skewing those numbers just a little. The interesting thing comes when we look at the numbers in the losses.
A couple of points of interest here. The Texans were +3 in four different games on the season. They were 2-2 in those games. A normal team would be 4-0 in those games and at worst 3-1. However, let’s consider the totals. Teams that lose almost always lose the turnover battle, yet the Texans were a collective +2 in the eight games that they lost. In addition to those two games, they were also on the plus side against the Titans the first time and were even on the turnover ratio against the Jets and in the playoff games against the Chiefs.
In other words, the Texans were on the wrong side of the turnover battle only three times this season. Furthermore, while the team obviously surrendered more points in losses, they didn’t give up a ton of yards. They only gave up 400 or more yards once. They only gave up 350 or more yards three other times and they won one of those games.
We are painting a picture here. The picture is that the defense showed up in almost all of their games. They consistently generated turnovers in wins and losses and were fairly consistent at limiting yards as well. In fact, if you remove the Ravens game they gained almost as many yards as their opponents in their eight losses.
In the Red Zone
One could easily identify the problem for the Texans. When you look at how efficiently teams score overall you start by looking in the red zone. Where do the Texans rank in end zone efficiently? Obviously, we are talking about touchdowns and field goals, but we are also looking at turnovers as well.
The Texans were 28th in the NFL scoring a little over 48 percent as touchdowns. The Steelers were the only playoff team to be worse in that department. The team was 23rd in offensive touchdowns per game as well. They were 21st in points per field goal attempt as well. In short, this team didn’t score points efficiently.
Yet, they moved the ball just fine. The Texans were 13th in average trips to the red zone per game. It’s not difficult to pinpoint why. Joe Mixon was one of the best backs in football and that is particularly true when scoring was concerned. C.J. Stroud saw his completion percentage drop to 56.5 percent in the red zone. He didn’t throw any picks, but also did not score any rushing touchdowns this season. He was 14th in red zone touchdowns.
Putting it All Together
The story of the 2024 Texans will ultimately be about the progress of the defense and the lack of progress by the offense. C.J. Stroud clearly took a step back. Yes, that was in large part because of the break downs in protection. Yes, a part of this is because two of his targets missed multiple games due to season ending knee injuries.
Yet, an offensive coordinator’s job is to deal with these things. It is his job to make blocking assignments simpler when there are injuries on the line. It is his job to change the offensive scheme when the quarterback doesn’t have enough time. It is his job to scheme a way to get lesser receivers open when the starters are injured. It is sometimes a thankless job, but it is a job that DeMeco Ryans and Matt Burk did on the defensive end. They simplified assignments for young players in the secondary. They seamlessly inserted backups for injuried players without seeing a huge drop off in performance. They managed to game plan wonderfully against the best quarterbacks in the business. There can be no excuses when the Super Bowl is the goal.
More importantly, Slowik’s offense failed in the most important times in the game. They were 28th in red zone touchdown percentage. They did a good job of moving the ball most of the time, but couldn’t seem to score touchdowns. They were tied for 18th in the NFL in turnovers a season after they led the NFL with the fewest turnovers. Even with the addition of Joe Mixon, this team seemingly took a step backwards in every other meaningful offensive category. Maybe even more importantly, C.J. Stroud needs a new voice to help him take the next step he obviously needs to take, We will look at more of that next time.