Could a once great back be the missing piece of the offense?
One of my favorite books growing up was a book titled “The Missing Piece” by Shel Silverstein. In fact, I use it now as a teaching tool when I work high school retreats at my church. Obviously, the story has a lot of deep themes that we really shouldn’t get to here, but the title seemed to ring true for me as I think about the Texans offense.
If you asked most Texans fans what they wanted in one additional player they would probably say a center or guard. That’s certainly fair as the offensive line is still a huge question mark for the upcoming season. However, that may not in fact be the team’s biggest need. Good or bad, the Texans have depth at those positions. It may not be good depth, but it is competition and if one guy goes down we can reasonably be sure that another will play at a similar level. It might not be a good level, but it is what it is at this point.
The Texans drafted wide receiver depth and an additional tight end that could make an impact. While the team did draft Woody Marks and he is certain to fill a role this team needs, the depth at running back might be biggest remaining hole. A 17 game schedule is grueling and expecting a starting running back like Joe Mixon to make it through all 17 games and the playoffs is unrealistic. Who takes his place when he is out?
The Case for Nick Chubb
We need not be pollyanna about this. Last year was a rough year for Chubb. He had gained over 1500 yards in a previous season and near that amount in another. Chubb is likely not that same guy. He averaged 3.3 yards per attempt last season in an injury-riddled campaign. After all, there is a reason why guys are still available in late May.
He suffered a torn MCL and ACL in 2023 and lost the first half of the 2024 season recovering from those injuries. He missed from week 15 on with a foot injury. So, 2024 was a lost season for him. In six previous seasons, he never averaged fewer than 5.0 yards per carry. He is at nearly 7000 career yards despite missing much of the last two seasons.
The Texans have done this before and it worked. They signed Cam Akers who had a similar injury history. In the end, they flipped Akers for a future draft pick. I’m not sure I would have done that at the time, because it showed continued faith in Dameon Pierce. Pierce simply hasn’t stepped up as a consistent backup running back. Thus, the Texans need to augment the room with someone.
Chubb has been a bell cow in the past, so if Mixon were to go down for a few games he could step in and carry the load some. Otherwise, his bullish running style would fit well with Mixon for between five to ten carries a game. One of the best ways to keep C.J. Stroud upright is by asking him to hand the ball to someone else more often.
What about Woody Marks?
Chubb has never had more than 36 catches in a season even though he was the primary back in Cleveland for five full seasons. He is not a third down back and certainly not a change of pace back. Marks can fill both of those roles. He might also be able to equip himself as a runner, but I don’t want to rest our chances in 2025 on the off-chance that Marks can be a primary running back when Mixon is out.
So, he still would have an important place in this offense. More importantly, he would serve as the primary secondary back when Mixon is out. Most teams need three solid running backs to get through a season and right now this team has one they know and they hope Marks can be the second.
Who is the odd man out?
53 man rosters are tricky. You need guys that can do multiple things in order to make everything work. Simplistic logic would indicate that Dare Ogunbowale would be the odd man out, but I’m not so sure. He is a good player on special teams and those players are important. However, he proved unplayable at times and that was particularly true when he was asked to pick up pass rushers in the backfield.
Yet, one can’t help but note that Pierce doesn’t seem to have a spot. Yes, he had a great game against the Titans, but they were clearly tanking and the game was academic. He had such a promising rookie season and he seems like a really great guy and teammate. I generally don’t really hate very many people, but most of us have “sports hate” for certain guys. He will never be one of those. I want him to have success in the league, but I think it just won’t be here.
The beauty of a Chubb is that he would probably come for a one year prove it kind of contract. He wants to showcase that he still has it for another team in 2026. We can let him do that here. The worst that can happen is that the injuries zapped every bit of ability he has and you could stick a fork in him. It would be a small risk and minimal cap hit. The best that can happen is that he proves to be close to his old self and you have a huge upgrade at backup running back.