It’s actually three grades and not one
I made fun of people who do this and here I am doing it. I am grading the Houston Texans draft less than 48 hours after it was completed. I point this out because we must acknowledge the silliness of it all. At the end of the day, this is simply a way to get clicks in our business and this is no different. Maybe I could throw in some Shedeur Sanders commentary just to get a spike for the site.
However, I do promise to do things a little more thoughtfully than most. As the teaser indicates, the problem with draft grades is that there are really three grades we have to consider. The first is obviously the most important and the one we know the least about. How good are the football players that you brought in? We obviously won’t know for sure until two or three years down the road.
The second grade involves the needs that your team came into the draft with and whether those needs were addressed. This is also a perception issue. Executives, coaches, scouts, and pundits view needs differently because they view players differently. Nick Caserio and DeMeco Ryans obviously feel differently about certain players than we do. So, like any other grade, this grade is subjective, but it is separate from the quality of the players.
The final grade is how a team utilizes their assets. Teams move up and teams move down. Did the Texans win those trades? A large part of that discussion is not only the point value from the draft value chart, but also whether the team missed out excessively on players when they moved down or picked a player others were going to pick if they moved up. So, let’s tackle these one by one.
Test One: How good are these players?
Again, I’d be nuts if I said I could answer this definitively. There are all kinds of scouting services that have varying track records of success. My stated goal coming into this draft was to get three eventual starters or heavy rotational players. For instance, last year’s draft produced Calen Bullock, Kamari Lassiter, and Blake Fisher. All three look like eventual starters. Cade Stover might or might not end up being a heavy rotation player depending on his development from year one to year two.
A similar impact from this draft would be welcome. We must remember that we can see some of this in their rookie year, but a lot of these grades say “eventual” before everything. For instance, Nico Collins played a lot in his first two years (when healthy) but was not an impact player until year three. Some of that was due to being on a bad football team and some of that might have been issues with the depth chart.
I personally think both wide receivers taken will be eventual starters or heavy rotation players. I think Jaylen Noel is waiting for Christian Kirk to move on before he fully takes over in the slot, so next year it might not look like an immediate dividend. Jayden Higgins is listed behind John Metchie on some depth charts, but I’d be very surprised if that ends up being the final result.
From there, Aireontae Ersery should be a starting tackle eventually. It likely will not come this year, but in 2026 it could very well be Ersery and Fisher on either end. Doing so would allow for the Texans to save some serious money for at least one season while they pay out the nose for C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. If there is a fourth guy from this class it would be Woody Marks. He likely will be utilized as a third down back next season and could be the primary backup running back until Joe Mixon finally loses steam. That’s four guys from this draft that look like eventual starters or heavy rotation players. Grade: B+
Test Two: Did they address their needs?
Let’s be completely fair here. The team had definite needs in the wide receiver room and they addressed that with two day two selections. So, they definitely addressed those needs. There was a definite need for a running back to backup Joe Mixon and they selected one in the fourth round. One of the things we have to keep in mind is that this question and the third question spill together some. Obviously, we won’t know if the players they got actually fill those needs until a few years down the road.
The bigger question is whether they used the assets they had to effectively address a need. Taking a defensive tackle late in the sixth round and a tight end in the seventh for instance casually addresses those needs, but it really isn’t all that effectual. Those are picks that rarely stick beyond one or two seasons. So, I don’t count those positions as being addressed.
The Texans did address the secondary with two selections. That included a third round pick. I’m not sure that the pundits would agree that the secondary was a pressing need. By contrast, the interior offensive line was seen as a HUGE hole on this team and they selected exactly ZERO interior offensive linemen. I actually liked the safety they picked late, so if they had drafted a center or guard in the third round instead of a jack of all trades defensive back this grade would have likely been far different. Grade: C-
Test Three: How did you use your assets?
To be perfectly fair, Nick Caserio set up the 2026 draft to be pretty good. They now sit with two second round picks and two fourth round picks. That is in addition to the first rounder and third rounder they already had. They used one extra third rounder to move up in the fourth round to select Marks. That one trade is kind of a microcosm of this entire weekend.
According to the charts, Caserio did okay. He got more value to move out of the first round then the charts said he should. He probably overpaid a little to move back into the fourth round. The move up in the second round was probably about right and the move up in round three was more or less on par. So, overall, I did not have any particular problem with the price paid to move up or down.
Two potential offensive linemen were picked between 25 and 33 when they moved down. Obviously, they must not have liked either of those guys. Ersery was on most people’s radars and since they had missed out on linemen up to that point, that move made some sense. Every other move was a different story entirely.
Is Jaylin Smith a good football player? Maybe. Was anyone going to pick him before the end of the third round? Not likely. The same could be said for Marks as a number of pundits had other backs listed before him. Again, this is not about the player specifically, but the assets used to get him. If you could have gotten Smith without trading then you wasted a selection to move up to get him. If you could have gotten Marks without trading then you wasted a valuable 2026 asset to move up to get him. I suppose there is a point to paying a price to make sure you get the guy you want and their performance on the field will determine the final grade here. However, it felt like the Texans moved up a few times without needing to. Grade: D
Overall Thoughts
The first test is the first test for a reason. It is really the only test that matters. The second test matters more than the third test. At the end of the day, no one gives a flip where you were picked once you put the pads on. Brock Purdy may have been Mr. Irrelevant, but that doesn’t matter in current contract negotiations. This draft will ultimately be about the guys they got and whether they are good and whether that interior offensive line holds up. The third test matters today because the draft is fresh in our minds, but as time moves on it will be less and less important.