What are our picks for Texans vs. Colts?
We at SBNation and Battle Red Blog are excited to announce our new partnership with FanDuel. Since we have a new partner for all of your sports gambling needs we are rolling out a new feature. As the guy around here that loves statistics and all things empirical data, I am doing something of a social experiment that we can follow for the 2024 NFL season.
Sports gambling is a multiple billion dollar industry and more and more states are opening their doors to sports gambling. Obviously, there are political and social ramifications that we won’t get into, but either way it is here to stay. We offer our picks here for entertainment purposes only. There are all kinds of people on the radio, television, and the internet that will tell they have the secret to sustained gambling success. The only real folks that have sustained success are the books themselves. So, please do not wager any more than you are comfortable losing and treat it as entertainment more than a fledgling investment opportunity.
All that being said, we are going to do five simple “bets” each week. I’ll even tell you why I am making those picks. We will pick the standard wager line, the money line, and three prop bets I like for the Houston Texans game that week. We will keep a tally and see how we do. I am guessing it will somewhere around 50 percent, but we will call that a working hypothesis for now.
Standard Line: Houston Texans (-2.5)
The Vegas standard is that home field advantage is usually worth about a field goal. So, essentially the Texans would be favored by five and a half points on a neutral field. Some sports books have elevated the line to three points. This is because the vast majority of the bets are going on the Texans. If you would like for Vegas to be busted you are rooting heavily on the Texans. There are experts that are saying this is one of the more lopsided money outlays in the last three years.
The Indianapolis Colts are 0-10 on opening day over the last ten years and 1-9 against the spread. They are a notoriously slow starting team. That coupled with unbridled optimism on the Texans can explain the money going their way. I am pessimistic as a general rule and anytime the wise guys set a line they generally know something. However, I am going to go against my pessimism and go with the Texans 28-24.
Pick: Texans 28-24
Money Line: Houston Texans (-152)
As a stats guy I am embarrassed to admit that I have no idea what the above number means. I know the Texans are favored to win the game and the money line seems simple enough to go with on that level. So, I will simply repeat my score prediction from above and go with that.
[Ed. note: The moneyline is how much you should expect to win based on a $100 bet. So for -152, you would have to bet $152 to win $100. Conversely, if the moneyline were +152, you’d have to bet $100 to win $152.]
Pick: Texans 28-24
Prop Bet One: C.J. Stroud Under 272.5 passing yards
This is not about a lack of faith in Stroud. This is just a high number and we don’t know how the first week will go. I am working under the assumption that the Texans will be playing from ahead for much of the game. In that scenario the Texans will run the ball more often which means fewer passing yards. Plus, I think they commit more to the running game this week while the season is still young.
Prop Bet Two: Joe Mixon Over 54.5 Rushing Yards
Again, this is just a guess that the Texans will end up committing more to the running game this week than they might all season long. Since we didn’t see Mixon all preseason this is a wild guess. If he averages 50 yards a game then that’s only 850 yards rushing, so this feels like a safe bet, but I have been wrong many times before.
Prop Bet Three: Anthony Richardson Under 43.5 rushing yards
Richardson burned the Texans for two rushing touchdowns last season in the first matchup. DeMeco Ryans is a top notch defensive mind and a prideful individual. If he has anything to say about it, he is not going to let Richardson run roughshod over his defense. This might mean that Jonathan Taylor is more successful, but he is going to have a plan for that RPO game.
In this section we will keep the tally of how my picks do week to week and throughout the whole season. Like I said before, I am guessing somewhere around 50 percent, but if I am significantly better maybe I can quit my day job. If I’m significantly worse maybe they will have someone else write this feature next year. Please keep in mind to have fun out there and don’t wager anything you can’t afford to lose.