What if two plays in Week 9 go another way against Tampa Bay?
How close did the Houston Texans play their 2023-24 games? It is said that luck is with those that don’t need it. Maybe true, but it certainly seemed like the Texans got more good luck this past season than they had the last 3 seasons combined. The team played 10 games where the outcome came down to the final minute, going 7-3. At one point in the season, the team played 8 straight must-watch-to-the-bitter end contests. The stats on heart conditions of Texans’ fans during those games is not readily available, many on-call Houston-based cardiologists likely hated Sunday afternoons, as surely their phones started ringing off the hook between 3-3:30 Central Time.
Within those 10 games where it comes down to the final play, perhaps the most significant game, and the one with arguably the biggest “What if?” factor would be Houston’s 39-37 barnburning win vs. Tampa Bay in Week 9. Houston came into the game at 3-4, suffering the indignity of a walk-off loss at Carolina. While viewed as a pleasant surprise by the national media, the team held higher ambitions. While Tampa Bay was in the midst of their own struggles, they did hold more recent playoff experience.
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Dare Ogunbowale kicks a 29-Yard FG against Tampa Bay:
At the 8:45 mark of the 4th Quarter, the Texans, with the game tied and the ball on the TB 11 yard line, faced a 4th and Goal. Houston decided to let RB Ogunbowale, who handled kickoff duties in the second half after Fairbairn went out with an in-game quad injury, try the go-ahead FG. The kick sailed just inside the left upright, putting Houston up 33-30.
Discussion: These two plays might have had the biggest impact on the course of the overall season. For the Ogunbowale kick, 29 yards seemed safer than 33 yards. The team eschewed any FG attempts in the 2nd half to that point and went for 2 after all second half TDs. Yet, the percentages of converting a 10+ yard 4th and goals are not high. Ogunbowale’s did have the leg for at least considering a short FG, even if the accuracy was uncertain. Given the defense-optional feel of this game, Houston needed to get points when they could. A missed 4th down conversion likely rates as a psychological blow and gives strategic control of the game back to the Bucs. Houston would not have been out of the game, as the score remained tied. Yet, the idea that the squad could only hope to score by getting TDs would put a lot of pressure on the young squad. Going for the short FG, even using a non-kicker, was the better percentage play. Yes, they did surrender the go-ahead TD, but then, they only needed just the TD to win, not rely on a TD just to have the potential to tie (not likely, given the Texans’ reluctance to try a PAT with Ogunbowale) or go for the win (exciting, but a lower percentage play).
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Todd Bowles takes a late Timeout:
After the Ogunbowale FG, Houston held the lead until a 14 YD Mayfield TD pass with :46 seconds left in the 4th quarter. Houston got the ball back, needing to go 75 yards, but had two TOs and 46 seconds. The Texans won the game on a 15 yard TD pass from Stroud to win 39-37, which may not have happened had Todd Bowles not saved Houston 10-12 seconds by use of a late TO prior to the TD pass.
Discussion: In a crazy play, Tampa Bay saw Mayfield complete a 15 yard pass to Trey Palmer to the Houston 14, only to see the Texans force the fumble that ended up in Mike Evans’ hands. After the automatic review, the officials awarded the ball back to the Bucs at the HOU 14. with 37 seconds left in the game. However, at this point, Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles took the team’s final timeout, back-dated to 49 seconds (at the end of the previous play). Tampa Bay scored on a 14 yard TD pass, going up 37-33. This left Houston needing a TD, but they would have 46 seconds and two TOs to make that happen. Given that Houston scored the go-ahead TD with 6 seconds left, the time question is very much relevant.
What if Bowles didn’t take that TO, letting the clock run down or even accepting a penalty? Tampa at least had a healthy kicker, playing in a domed stadium. The Bucs kicker MacLauglin already kicked a 55 yarder. Here Bowles needed to consider post-score. Likely Tampa Bay makes the kick in great field position, even having a timeout remaining just in case. 34-39 seconds remaining in the game would make little difference. Most likely, the game goes to overtime if Tampa Bay settles for the FG if the team lets time wind down and Houston doesn’t allow another late TD.
Yet, what if Tampa Bay scores the TD with 34-36 seconds remaining? Houston’s margin remains that much narrower. If all else remains the same, Houston gets one less play. The Stroud-to-Dell 26 yard completion at 16 seconds that saw Dell get out of bounds with 6 seconds left at the 15 yard line is a no go. In the new timeline, Houston is back at the Tampa Bay 41. Perhaps the team can try a quick out to the sideline, but more likely, Houston goes for the Hail Mary. Does Stroud complete it? Possible and the Texans still get the dramatic victory, but the percentages say that Tampa Bay, with 10 fewer seconds to worry about, escapes with the 37-33 win.
A Houston loss drops them to 3-5. This does not eliminate them from the playoffs chase at this point, but coming off painful last-second losses at Atlanta and Carolina and surrendering yet another lead inside of a minute left in the 4th could scar the team psyche. Winning builds off winning, but so does losing build off losing. The following week, the Texans yet again surrendered a late lead (at Cincinnati), but without the win the week before and now burdened with the memory of 3 blown leads in 4 games, does that drag down the team, forcing Stroud and the team to press into mistakes? Even if the loss against the Bucs didn’t necessarily snowball into losing more games, that one loss effectively ends the Texans’ playoff hopes. If all else remains the same, then the brutal loss to the Browns on Christmas Eve effectively ends the Texans season, meaning that the end-of-year Colts matchup is only critical for Indy, where Houston tries to play spoiler.
A subplot to this narrative is Stroud. After a brutal concussion against the New York Jets of New Jersey, Stroud missed the next two games. Ultimately, that did not hurt the playoff ambitions of the 2023 Texans, who went 1-1 and still managed to win their final 2 games to get into the dance. Yet, say Houston sat not at 7-6 post-Jets, but 6-7? Would Stroud still miss both weeks? Do the Texans clear him to get back for the Cleveland game? If the team still loses against Cleveland in this timeline, do they let Stroud play the final two games? They wouldn’t be mathematically eliminated until Week 17, but could the franchise risk longer-term injury? Likely Stroud wins Offensive Rookie of the Year, but by a far narrower margin. The promise of 2024 still burns bright, but the team faces a big season without the benefit of any playoff experience. That experience counts for much in the chase for the Super Bowl.
Yet, the Texans did make the 29 yard FG, Bowles did call that timeout, and Houston won perhaps the most exciting game in recent memory for the team. With all of the narrow games, you could do a whole series of “What If” articles, but that Tampa Bay game may have been the key point of the season. Could history look back on this game as not only the start of the 2023-24 Texans’ success, but its successes there after? Stay tuned.