The Houston Rockets are expected to be without starting point guard Fred VanVleet for the entire 2025-26 season. Even with some faintly positive historical precedent to fall back on, it’s a major blow to the team’s contender credentials. Houston went to great lengths to improve those credentials this offseason, overhauling plenty of personnel. Even so, it’s worth looking at what kind of team the Rockets were without VanVleet in 2024-25.
Analyzing the Sans-VanVleet Houston Rockets
Last season, VanVleet averaged 14.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game. He shot 37.8% from the field and 34.5% from three. None of that screams irreplaceable, especially the shooting splits, which instead might cause screams of their own. But VanVleet led the team in assists and did so with only 1.5 turnovers per game. He’s also the only proven NBA-caliber guard on the roster. Oh, and he went nuclear for a few games in the playoffs.
Overall, without VanVleet, the Rockets went 11-11 in 2024-25. VanVleet’s main absence was over a stretch from February 3rd to March 10th. Technically, he did put in an appearance on March 1 against the Clippers. It was an extended appearance at that, playing a whopping 34 minutes and 45 seconds. Unfortunately, he went 1 for 8 from the field and was immediately added back to the injury list. Houston isn’t likely to make the same mistake again.
The Wins and Losses
Houston lost the first four games in a row after VanVleet went down. Adding to the adjustment of losing their floor general, the four games were also a cross-country road trip. Notably, however, Houston had only two four-game losing streaks over the whole of 2024-25. The second one, which included the first game of the playoffs, was also sans VanVleet for two of the games.
Of course, those late-season games were after the two-seed had already been secured. Houston was giving extended minutes to the likes of Jock Landale, Cam Whitmore, and, of course, Reed Sheppard.
The Numbers
VanVleet was on the court for a total of 16 minutes and 34 seconds this February. For the month, the Rockets went 4-7 for a 41.7% win rate. Somehow, that rate was even lower than their field goal percentage over that span. They shot just 43.5% from the field for the month, the third-worst percentage in the league. They also achieved the second-fewest assists per game over the same period.
Houston didn’t excel in these categories even with VanVleet, no surprise given his own shooting. They were 21st in field goal percentage for the season. That’s obviously not good, but it’s a step up from 28th. Meanwhile, while they were still third-to-last in assists for the season overall, their turnovers per game went from 11th fewest for the season to 12th most in February.
The Numbers Udoka Cares About
All of these are just the numbers behind what people already assumed. The Houston Rockets’ offense is even uglier without its only viable point guard. What might be slightly more surprising is that their defense was actually worse as well. Their defensive rating, fifth for the season, dropped to ninth in February.
In fairness, that could just be the numbers behind what head coach Ime Udoka has always assumed. As much as VanVleet is a stabilizing presence on offense, it’s no surprise that Udoka claims to mainly like him because of his defense. With Houston’s abundance of athletic wings, both this season and last, VanVleet was rarely relied on for guarding the primary offensive creator. Instead, a smart, always engaged defender, VanVleet was constantly finding ways to make himself useful and help organize his teammates. The Rockets will miss him on this end as well.
However, a coinciding absence for Houston last year was that of Jabari Smith Jr. Smith missed roughly half of February and nearly the entirety of January, when Houston’s defensive rating was all the way down at 17th. But even if Smith’s defensive contributions were more greatly missed than VanVleet’s, the Rockets overall didn’t miss a beat. For the month, in which VanVleet missed only one game and Smith played only one, the Rockets were 11-4 for a 73.3% win rate.
The Last Word
Houston’s 2025-26 team will not be the same as the VanVleet-less 2024-25 Rockets. Whether there’s an NBA-caliber point guard on the roster or not, swapping Jalen Green‘s offense for Kevin Durant is a big deal. Of course, leaning heavily on Durant as a primary ballhandler was very much not part of Houston’s plan going into this season. There are other avenues for Houston to try to fill this void. However, there isn’t a sure thing among them. There is one thing all this analysis makes clear, though: the sans-VanVleet Rockets will keep Houston’s psychoanalysts busy all season long.
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