It’s back! Sort of!
Hey, Five Out isn’t really dead! I’ve just been swamped with major, though not bad, stuff in my life.
It’s said that brevity is the soul of wit, so where that leaves me is concerning. Anyhow some Rockets thoughts for you, as VSL gets underway.
1. Vegas Summer League
The Rockets are sending a decidedly “Blah” roster to Summer League. The only players likely to be significant this season are Reed Sheppard (Ime willing) and N’Faly Dante (enjoying Rockets big wins by watching him dominate garbage time).
This is good. It means this is a team that isn’t climbing out of hole, that doesn’t need to show off prospects and hope for the future. The Rockets future is now. The team isn’t looking for someone to hold down the 10-15 spots. They’ve basically got those players, and more, really.
So while I’m happy to watch Reed, N’Faly, Mojave King and Adonis Arms (great name choices Stone), I’m happier that VSL isn’t the beacon of the Rockets future right now.
2. Good Jalen?
What, more Jalen? Not really. Just this thought. When the Rockets got “Good Jalen”, that is to say efficiently scoring Jalen, they generally won, often pretty big. The Rockets have now essentially swapped Jalen, one of the least efficient fairly high shooting volume players. Yes, Durant is older *, but he’s pretty much always at least “Good Jalen” in terms of scoring. His defense, which won’t be stellar at his age, will still be fine, because he’s 7ft tall with really long arms. Jalen had become a slightly above/slightly below average defender, depending on how you look at him. Durant should manage slightly below without much issue.
Further, KD’s assist rate is better than Jalen’s. He’s not thought of as a big time passer, but he’s not bad. KD has averaged 4.4 assists per game for his career, Jalen 3.4. I expect Durant will crack 5 pretty easily, if he wants, with these Rockets.
3. Dillon Goes Eclectic
The Rockets traded away two starters, in Jalen and Dillon Brooks. Dillon Brooks arguably enjoyed the best overall season of his career last year, at age 29. How do the Rockets replace him? The answer is about four players either playing more, or more or less taking his minutes. Tari Eason, assuming he’s not in bubble wrap this season over his bone injury, can more or less be a 1 to 1 replacement. He’d have to attempt more threes and make about one extra every other game to hit Dillon’s shooting percentage. A slightly lower, but more consistent percentage might honestly help more. Dillon was hot or cold with his shooting most of last season. It worked out to 40%, but the 1-7 type games were fairly frequent.
There’s also more minutes for Jabari Smith, which is a good thing, I’m high on his future.
Finally, there’s Dorian Finney-Smith, stepping into the PJ Tucker slot for the Rockets. Like Dillon, he’ll take on tough defensive assignments up and down the lineup. Like Dillon, he’s pretty tall and tough (though less vocal – but it might be time for The Young Rockets to be more vocal). People say he’s old, but he just turned 32. He’s two years (essentially) older than Brooks. He’s slightly taller than Brooks, and over his career, a better shooter, especially lately.
All this to say, that’s another starter replaced with at worst, like for like.
4. The Offense
I’ll not dwell on this, or rant, but Durant should improve the offense by just being Kevin Durant of course. Is that enough? I think KD’s career average playoff line of 29/8/4/3/1/1 would have taken the Rockets to the Conference Finals, maybe beyond. Swarming him doesn’t really help, as he doesn’t really dribble much, and keeps the ball high, and probably you can’t just hack his arms and hands constantly like OKC loves to do, because he’s Kevin Freaking Durant.
Moreover, the young Rockets should be better simply from being actual veterans now.
There also will be SPACE, with Durant. The “pack the paint, dare them to shoot, close hard if they do” defense isn’t the all purpose solution to the Rockets.
I think there’s a chance that Clint Capela could be an unexpected bonus on offense, as the only real rim running type they have there. No, he’s no longer Baby Deer, but he’s also out of Atlanta. If you have followed the Hawks at all, now they’re smart, so that might be a worry, but also, basically every teammate hates Trae Young. Let’s see if that matters. People thought Steven Adams’ career was over. Stone, Ime, the Rockets and Steven Adams himself proved very much to the contrary. It won’t happen overnight, but maybe, like Adams, it happens. He’s not the starter, but he could be very useful on Adams rest nights.
Finally, the Rockets HAVE an offensive coordinator on the bench, if they’ll let him run. Royal Ivey coached South Sudan, the youngest nation in the world, so no real national team tradition, to a very fine showing in the Olympics. Their offense was furious, fast and fun. Ime, let the man loose! Let Royal cook!
5. The Odds
Bet the over, if you are inclined to that sort of thing*, and I’m not condoning it, but I might have a smaller flutter on it. This team is set up to be a freight train in the regular season.
*Usual Terms, Conditions, Caveats, Etc., always apply.