Only 13 teams have overcome a 3-1 series deficit in NBA history, and the Houston Rockets have done it twice so far. If they win Game 7 against the Golden State Warriors on Sunday, they will become the only team in league history to do it three times. The Rockets first completed the comeback in 1995 and went on to win a title. The second time, they lost in the following round in the Conference Finals.
Usually, being down 3-1 indicates the end of the series. However, the Rockets are among the few teams that have overcome the huge disadvantage.
NBA History on the Line for the Houston Rockets in Game 7
Did the Warriors Let Go of the Rope?
In the Hoop Collective podcast, Brian Windhorst mentioned the similarities between the 2015 Los Angeles Clippers and this year’s Warriors. Both played the Rockets and led 3-1 in the series. In the 2015 playoffs, Houston completed a comeback and won the matchup. This Rockets team has the same chance. Windhorst said,
“I am just going to say that the first step towards blowing a 3-1 lead is laying down in Game Five. That doesn’t mean they’re going to blow a 3-1 lead. I remember watching that game way back in 2015 when the Clippers blew their first 3-1 lead against the Rockets. They come into Houston and do a similar thing, where they just totally don’t take the game seriously, and get blown out. I am not saying that’s what’s happening here.”
In Game 5, the Warriors emptied their bench in the third quarter. Head coach Steve Kerr probably wanted to give his starters the night off and rest them for Game 6. But with the Golden State losing big time in Game 5, most of the stars were having fun on the bench. After Game 6, Draymond Green spoke post-game about how the Rockets want to win more. He said,
“In order to beat this team, you got to make second and third efforts. In the last two games, we have not done that. The reality is the person who wants the ball more will get it. Right now, it seems as if they want it more.”
Although the stat sheet might not show it, the Warriors have played very loosely in the last two games. While they outrebounded Houston in Game 5, their hustle has not been there, and Green is pointing to that.
Will the Rockets’ Lack of Experience Cost Them Game 7?
The last time the Rockets played in a Game 7 was in 2020 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round. Not a single player from that roster is on this team.
On the other hand, the Warriors have played in several Game 7s during their championship runs and have a more experienced roster. Stephen Curry has played in five Game 7s with a 3-2 record.
History Is Not on the Rockets’ Side
The Rockets will be playing against history in Game 7. A total of 292 playoff series have had a 3-1 deficit. In 279 of them, the team leading eventually won the series. That is an astonishing 95.5%.
In the first round, there were 89 situations in which a team led 3-1. In 86 of those, the team leading the series won it, for a 96.6% winning percentage.
This Warriors team has been on both sides of the ball. They have come back from a 3-1 deficit before and won. But they have also blown leads before. Will Golden State finish off Houston? The odds suggest yes, but the Rockets will have a chance to make NBA history.
Featured image © Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
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