Despite going up against a No. 2 seed as a No. 7 team that required a play-in victory to clinch a playoff spot, the Warriors were considered by oddsmakers to be solid favorites in their first-round series against the Rockets.
In a competitive Western Conference, Golden State finished the regular season with only four fewer wins than Houston and was the better team after adding Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, ranking third in the NBA in wins (23) and net rating (+9.2) between Butler’s debut and the end of the season. The Warriors also had a major edge in experience over the Rockets, whose young core would be playing in its first postseason series.
Through four games, it looked like the oddsmakers were right. The Warriors held a 3-1 series lead and had deployed their defense (ranked No. 1 in the NBA since Butler’s debut) to great effect, holding the Rockets to just 94.7 points per game in Houston’s three losses.
But the Rockets may have figured something out during the last two games, both of which they led from nearly start to finish. As the Warriors struggled to find five-man units they liked, subbing out starting guard Brandin Podziemski in Game 6 for Gary Payton II, Houston has found success with bigger lineups featuring center Steven Adams, who was a +30 in 48 minutes during those two victories.
And while it may not be sustainable, Rockets point guard Fred VanVleet has looked more like Stephen Curry than Curry himself in Games 5 and 6, knocking down 10-of-15 three-pointers (66.7%) and outscoring his Warriors counterpart by a 55-42 margin.
Jalen Green, Houston’s leading scorer during the season, still hasn’t found his groove in the playoffs — outside of his 38-point outburst in Game 2, he has averaged just 9.4 PPG on 30.2% shooting in the other five games. The Warriors also still have the experience advantage, as Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green are no strangers to Game 7 showdowns, whereas Rockets youngsters like Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, and Jabari Smith will be experiencing one for the first time.
But the Rockets have the momentum, they have the home-court advantage, and they’ve made Golden State look old and tired over the last couple games, as Marcus Thompson II writes for The Athletic. Curry continues to battle a thumb issue, while Butler is coming off a pelvic contusion. It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if the veteran Warriors bring their A-games on Sunday, but it’s also unclear how much they have left in the tank.
With all that in mind, it’s perhaps no surprise that oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to Houston — according to BetOnline.ag, the Rockets are 2.5-point favorites.
We want to know what you think. Will the Warriors hold off the young, upstart Rockets, or will Houston complete its comeback from a 3-1 deficit and set up a second-round matchup against Minnesota?
Vote in our poll, then head to the comment section below to make your predictions and share your thoughts!
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