With predictions, it’s easy to over-indulge in the happily-ever-after or the doom-and-gloom. What about a prediction that sounds doom-and-gloom but is actually riding into the sunset? Usually, shipping away an offseason signing before the trade deadline would imply something was seriously wrong. However, in the case of Dorian Finney-Smith, the Houston Rockets not needing him would be a best-case scenario.
Rockets 2025-26 Predictions: Dorian Finney-Smith Gone By The Deadline
To be clear, Finney-Smith is a quality role player with a valuable 3-and-D skillset. Though 32 years old, his four-year contract is only guaranteed for the first two years. It’s a number that lets the Rockets fit snugly under the first apron. Like most of Houston’s deals lately, it’s a good one.
The nine-year veteran even makes some sense in the Rockets’ rotation. That’s partially based on Rockets head coach Ime Udoka’s unyielding obsession with defenders and rebounders. Additionally, Finney-Smith does provide some spacing, though his touch has been inconsistent as of late.
Nevertheless, if the Rockets can get through the season fully healthy, they won’t find any transcendent playmakers. They’ll find forwards, lots of them. At heart, this is the primary issue; if Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr, and Tari Eason are all healthy, there simply won’t be many frontcourt minutes for Finney-Smith to fill. Yet, even if Houston views Durant as more of a guard due to his shooting prowess, there’s still a problem. At this juncture, Amen Thompson, Fred VanVleet, Aaron Holiday and Josh Okogie are the only defenders on the roster who can reliably keep up with guards on the perimeter.
Holiday Over DFS?
At 6-foot-0 and 185 pounds, Holiday doesn’t have Finney-Smith’s size. However, he’s faster, a more efficient shooter, a better ball-handler, and a known entity in the Rockets’ system. Most importantly, he’s a better point-of-attack guard defender. Should their health permit, it seems likely that Holiday would leap-frog Finney-Smith in the rotation.
Assuming a team will be fully healthy is rarely wise, though. The Rockets’ forward depth may be especially vulnerable to hubris. Durant is about to turn 37 years old. The much younger and sprightlier Eason has already developed a troubling injury track record anyway.
The most likely scenario is that one of the Rockets’ forwards will spend time on the sidelines, and Finney-Smith will step into a major role. Yet, as long as the Rockets are healthy heading up to the deadline itself, they might as well ask themselves what the best version of their rotation could look like. Essentially, it wouldn’t be so much whether the Rockets could upgrade from Finney-Smith, but whether they could use Finney-Smith to upgrade from Holiday.
The Nuance of Being a Defensive Nuisance
Houston does like to play zone, and Finney-Smith’s extra length gives him an advantage in those defensive alignments. Though listed at 6-foot-7, he has a near seven-foot wingspan. Zone defenses also protect slower-footed defenders from slippery guards, with players shifting as a collective to counter driving threats.
It’s when those slithery ball-handlers are also dangerous shooting threats that keeping them in check starts to get more complicated. The league is becoming increasingly inundated with that combination of skills though. Just ask Brooklyn Nets former restricted free agent Cam Thomas, who was forced to sign a qualifying offer due to questions about how valuable he is.
In the end, Finney-Smith’s has developed a reputation as a high-level defender for good reason. He just doesn’t have the ideal defensive tools for the Rockets perimeter needs. It’s also worth noting Rockets have the personnel and proclivity to play plenty of two-big lineups this upcoming season. That squeezes him out even more.
From New Signing To Sayonara
There should be sufficient demand for Finney-Smith due to his professionalism and 3-and-D credentials. There should also be plenty of guards with 2025-26 cap hits that are similar to his ($12.3 million). At least a few of them are players Udoka would be willing to call into battle.
An under-the-radar option is Golden State Warriors swingman Moses Moody. In fact, his point-of-attack defense has improved so much that he may be too important to the Warriors to give up. Minnesota Timberwolves combo Donte DiVincenzo, who has been plagued by injuries since being traded last offseason, is another possibility.
Of course, the Rockets probably can’t afford another non-shooter on the roster. However, if the Los Angeles Lakers want Finney-Smith back after all, defensive-minded point guard Gabe Vincent is an intriguing trade candidate. The number for pesky Indiana Pacers guard T.J. McConnell‘s contract ($10.2 million) is also in Finney-Smith’s range.
If the Rockets are willing to push their defense to the next level at the expense of draft capital, Herbert Jones is a close fit. He’s a forward as well, but a quick-twitch athlete. Of course, getting Jones would rely on the New Orleans Pelicans essentially blowing it up.
Frankly, these players aren’t considered to be available, not publicly. None of their teams are necessarily in desperate need of Finney-Smith’s services either. Closer to the playoffs though, at least one team that could be convinced otherwise.
The Last Word On Trading Dorian Finney-Smith
There’s easily a world where Houston has no interest in moving on from Finney-Smith. He’s a rock-solid wing-defender, people rave about his character, and he shot 41.1 percent from 3 just last season. Furthermore, the Rockets haven’t made an immediately-relevant mid-season trade during Udoka’s coaching tenure.
Yet, unlike in Udoka’s previous years, the Rockets aren’t out to prove themselves in the regular season per se. Their focus is on the postseason, which is why they made the move for Durant. If they want to give themselves an even better chance to contend in the playoffs, Finney-Smith’s spot is the most obvious place to roll the dice.
While those decisions are made, Houston fans will inevitably fall in love with his toughness and versatility. Just keep in mind, a deadline departure would be less about dumping dead weight, and more about declining deadly complacency.
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