On Monday night, the Houston Rockets will face the Denver Nuggets to determine the Western Conference two-seed for the second time this season. Both teams are having terrific starts to the year, even amid various setbacks. The Rockets are 16-6, while the Nuggets are 18-6. With three-quarters of the season to go, will either team be able to separate? If not to challenge the flabbergasting Oklahoma City Thunder for the one-seed, then at least to avoid facing them until the Conference Finals? And will there be any glimpse of that separation visible on Monday night?
Rockets-Nuggets Battle For The 2 Seed, Part II
The Nuggets won the last Rockets-Nuggets clash 112-109. They did that despite losing versatile defensive forward and 50-bomb innovator Aaron Gordon after less than three and a half minutes of play. Gordon has been absent from the Nuggets lineup with a hamstring injury ever since. He isn’t expected to return until after Christmas.
The Bigs
The good news for the Nuggets is that, not even counting the Rockets game, they are 8-3 this season with Gordon out. Their offseason additions put the best depth around and behind Serbian superstar Nikola Jokic since he won the Finals MVP. As strictly Jokic’s backup, Jonas Valanciunas is averaging 8.5 points and 4.7 rebounds in only 12.8 minutes per game. It’s the second-best per 36 minutes scoring of his career. It’s a tough gig to back up a player averaging 29.5 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 10.9 assists per game on 72.7% true shooting, as Jokic is. Valanciunas makes the drop-off about as manageable as you could hope for.
But Houston has been showcasing its own impressive center rotation this season, even if it doesn’t always strictly rotate. The center duo of Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams is ransacking the league for the offensive rebounding opportunities. Adams and Sengun are a +56 over 227 minutes sharing the court so far this season. Even when Houston doesn’t play them together, they give themselves 48 minutes of imposing physicality and toughness on the glass. They even have Clint Capela chipping in when required as well.
There won’t be any chance at NBA Cup progression on the table this time around. The Rockets will have plenty of motivation to seek revenge regardless. Sengun, in particular, will want to make up for a 14-point, 4-turnover, 5-foul, -16 showing in the last matchup.
The Perimeter
But the game’s outcome might be less about Houston’s bigs and more about their perimeter players. Reed Sheppard exploded for a then-career-high 27 points in the previous encounter. He shot 9-of-13 from the field and 5-of-8 from three. Rather than relying on him to lead his team in scoring again, the Rockets will be hoping for a better showing from superstar Kevin Durant. Durant shot just 5-of-15 in the last Denver game for a total of only 13 points. The likelihood of him shooting so poorly again seems low, especially just coming off another lacklustre 5 of 14 outing against the Los Angeles Clippers.
By limiting Sengun and Durant last time around, the Nuggets looked to starve Houston of its half-court creation. It’s a practice the Rockets saw plenty of back when Jalen Green was in the Durant role. But the whole point of making that upgrade was to give the Rockets an option in the half-court that can’t be so easily suppressed. Considering the Nuggets’ vulnerability to pull-up jump shooting and that they’re missing two of their best defenders (Christian Braun is also out), Durant should be able to produce the goods. Peyton Watson is long-limbed and agile, but Durant has been pruning defenders like him for 17 years. If Durant and Houston’s offense are stymied again, Houston may have to reevaluate the way it’s utilizing his skillset against teams that are dedicated to locking him down.
The Last Word
The Houston Rockets supposedly have one of the easiest remaining strength-of-schedules in the league. That means they’ve had one of the hardest up till now. Despite that, Houston hasn’t actually played against that many of the top teams so far this year. This Denver clash will be the beginning of a six-game road trip for Houston, though. One that will return to Denver again on Saturday, the 20th. Who knows? Maybe the battle for the two-seed will soon have a part III as well.
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