The Houston Rockets were one of the most improved teams in the league this season. They went from finishing 41-41 last season and missing the play-in to the second seed in the Western Conference. However, they fell in the first round to the Golden State Warriors. Loaded with draft capital, young players, and expiring contracts, the Rockets can make drastic changes in the offseason. Which path will they take? Let’s explore the similarities between the Rockets and what the Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder did a few seasons ago.
Rockets Offseason Crossroads: Build the Thunder or Grizzlies Way
The Rockets can see what happens when you make the wrong move in the offseason. The Grizzlies looked like one of the best teams in the league three seasons ago. Since then, they have lost in the first round twice and missed the playoffs once. The Thunder, on the other hand, look like the best team in the league. Let’s see how the Rockets compare to these two teams and their development.
Following the Memphis Grizzlies Route
The 2021-22 Memphis Grizzlies looked like a team that could be up there with the best in the league for the foreseeable future. Their young core of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. were 22 and 23 years old. That year, Morant won Most Improved Player of the Year. The following season, JJJ won the Defensive Player of the Year Award.
To be fair, injuries and Morant’s incidents prevented them from reaching their full potential. But at the same time, after the 2022-23 season, the Grizzlies wanted to shake things up. Ironically, two of their players ended up on the Rockets roster, Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams. Without those two, the Grizzlies do not look like the same team. They’ve lost their identity, and this season, they fired their coach with eight games left in the season.
The mistake the Grizzlies made was rushing things and trading valuable role player Tyus Jones for Marcus Smart. While Smart is a good player, he never truly fit the Memphis locker room. The lesson here is that you do not make a trade just for the sake of shaking things up.
Following the OKC Thunder Route
The Thunder of last year might be the best example the Rockets can follow. Last year, despite the team playing great and having an MVP player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder’s GM Sam Presti preached patience. He repeated several times that they wanted to see the team grow. They didn’t waste their draft picks or other assets to make a big trade. Yes, they traded Josh Giddey, but he didn’t fit their needs and hurt them in the playoffs.
Instead of trading for a big-name star, the Thunder allowed their young players to grow for one more season. Adding Alex Caruso in the Giddey trade and signing Isaiah Hartenstein proved to be ideal fits. As a result, they won 68 games and finished with the best record in the league. Will the Houston Rockets’ offseason follow the Thunder’s path? Or will they cash in their chips this summer? Let’s wait and see.
Looking at the Houston Rockets’ Potential Assets
The Rockets can potentially get close to $60 million in expiring money if they exercise the team options on Fred VanVleet and Jabari Smith Jr. But the reason many people mention the Rockets as a team that will control the offseason is their draft capital.
Right now, they are projected to pick at No. 9 in the 2025 draft, courtesy of the Phoenix Suns. Packaging that picks with Reed Sheppard is as good a conversation starter as any. Sheppard didn’t get much time this season. Yet, in his G League debut, he dropped 49 points, showing his versatile skills as a scorer.
On top of that, Houston has a 2027 first-round pick swap with Brooklyn and controls the Suns’ first-round pick in 2027 and 29. They also have a couple of seconds and their own pick in 2028, 30, and 31. Do the math, and that is eight highly valuable first-round picks (we count Sheppard as a first-rounder here).
Add in young players like Jalen Green, Tari Eason, and Cam Whitmore, and the Rockets can offer a royal package. With such ammunition, the Rockets can go after Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, or any other player who wants a fresh start. For Giannis, they could even move off of Alperen Sengun.
The question is whether they will let this young core grow for one more season like the Thunder, or will they try to rush things like the Grizzlies. There is no certainty that either path is better than the other. But at this point, the Rockets are quite similar to those teams. Both made a decision, and the Grizzlies regressed, while the Thunder vastly improved.
Featured image: © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
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