Familiar Foe. Familiar Problems. Familiar Result.
For a brand new Rockets team, reaching the playoffs for the first time, this all felt very familiar.
Familiar, one, because the Rockets appear to be snakebit, as an NBA team against the Warriors.
Familiar, also, because it was essentially a Greatest Hits of Rockets 2024-25 Problems.
Let’s deal with the Warriors.
The Warriors played a good, not great game. Their experience, their planning, and their ability to adjust were all in evidence. Steph Curry had a great shooting night, of course, and hit a bunch of shots that seem impossible, but he makes routinely. The Warriors went out of their way to keep him from Amen Thompson, who didn’t have a good game, anyway.
The Warriors got the Special Warriors touches from the refs they usually get. Curry running into VanVleet at full speed, from behind. Foul on VanVleet, that sort of thing, but overall it wasn’t as bad as we’ve seen it in the past. It’s not to blame.
Golden State played good defense, but the Rockets missed lay ups, and close in shots, and damn near every three they took, open, contested, whatever, they mostly clanked to the tune of 6-29 from 3pt range.
However the Golden State defense, while not all-world on defense, specifically geared their efforts to challenge the Rockets half-court offense. They dared the Rockets to make shots from outside, and made shots inside very difficult by packing all of the paint, if they could. Moreover, they sent a double at to any Rocket dribbling near the paint, and dared them to make an accurate pass out. They Rockets didn’t do that much at all. It worked as well as the Warriors could have hoped. The Rockets scored their lowest point total of the season, more because no real answer has been found, all season, other than “make more shots” and “run more”.
If you had told me the Warriors scored 95, with Steph Curry going 12-19, and I hadn’t watched the game, I would have assumed the Rockets won.
That brings us to the Rockets. As usual, there wasn’t much wrong with their defense. In fact, it was good. Curry had 11 points off makes that probably only he could accomplish (3 3pters, and one HORSE shot, as well as some very difficult layups).
The Rockets switched well, they tended to cover shooters well. They kept fouling down, despite things like Golden State hitting the free throw bonus less than three minutes into the third quarter. Defense is rarely the Rockets problem, and I wonder, as I often do, if Ime Udoka and company spent the whole week off only prepping defense. I’m sure that’s not the case, but the Rockets seemed totally unprepared to counter much of anything the Warriors defense did on offense.
Another old nemesis of this season’s Rockets appeared tonight. The offensive disaster quarter, where the Rockets offense seems like a snowball rolling down as snowy slope, but reversed. The Rockets offense went up the hill, and got smaller, and smaller, and worse, and worse, along the way.
The Rockets won three of the four quarters. They lost the 2nd quarter bad. How bad? 29-13 bad. Thirteen. Points. And this is where Udoka comes in for scrutiny.
Despite calling a bunch of timeouts in that quarter, and the third, when the Warriors lead ballooned to 23, did the Rockets actually run a play? Some action likely to spring a scorer for an easy basket? Not that I could tell. It looked like “Same Old, Same Old” on offense every time. The same high PNR, same pass into offense trapped in a corner, that clogs up, and shuts down, if a Rocket can’t beat his man one on one. And even if he did, the Warriors were so committed to helping on the driver around the paint, and dropping a third defender to the rim, that even if the Rocket beat the double, or help, there was another defender waiting at the rim.
The there was the utterly worthless offensive night from the Rockets starting backcourt. With the exception of an outburst against Miami late in the season, Fred VanVleet, frankly, has looked cooked. He can’t make shots. He can’t beat defenders one on one. His dribbling creates close to zero threat against a defense that more or less welcomes his shooting. A point guard in an offense as basic and lacking in creativity and ideas as the Rockets desperate NEEDS a PG or initiator who can create easy looks off the threat of his own offense.
That threat just isn’t present right now with VanVleet. Tonight he compounded the problem by shooting bad shots, early in the clock, again and again. He was trying, it seems, to lead the team, but he lead himself into a dismal 4-19 shooting and 2-13 from three. I was literally shocked when he made a shot tonight. He had 7 assists, but I’d suggest that only two of them were good looks created by FVV. By jacking bad shots early in the clock, or aimlessly dribbling, FVV isn’t even providing the offensive organization the Rockets need.
I like Fred. But his night was that bad. He’s unplayable like this, but Ime will insist on playing him.
Jalen Green had a bad shooting night. I’d differentiate from VanVleet in that Green did not shoot a bunch of terrible shots. He went 1-4 from three, not 2-13. Mostly he missed shots at the rim. I’d argue that many of those misses came off fouls, but he, like all the Rockets but one, simply couldn’t make close in shots at all tonight. Jalen didn’t really turn the ball over, he didn’t foul, and he grabbed 8 rebounds and he played good defense, which is all you can ask against Golden State. I’d say maybe three of his shot attempts were plain bad ideas.
Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams were the main bright spots tonight. Sengun came out ready, and played well. He went 11-18, grabbed 9 rebounds, had an assist, and three steals. He unfortunately had five turnovers as well. I’d very much link the turnovers and low assist total the Warriors defense, which not only attacked (and I do mean attacked) the Rockets dribble near the paint, but also made it very hard to drive and kick, or for Sengun to dime anyone from the paint.
Adams was his usual forceful self. He was part of a lineup that provided a turning point in the third quarter for the Rockets. He grabbed 12 rebounds in 20 minutes, 7 offensive, and helped the Rockets shut down the paint. He went 3-4 shooting, and 0-2 from the FT line.
The Rockets did not accomplish their trick of turning offensive rebounds to points, as they couldn’t hit shots in close, and they turned the ball over 16 times, to 11 for Golden State, so they didn’t really turn rebounding, or turnovers into offense, the key to making their somewhat flaccid half-court offense a bit better.
The main problem, in the end, though, was shooting
Bad free throw shooting: 11-20. Same as it ever was.
VanVleet – 4-19
Green – 3-15
Brooks – 3-9
Eason – 3-10
Thompson – 4-9
Really a murder’s row of bad shooting.
Jabari Smith shot it very well, but of course, not often, and VanVleet refused to look for him, preferring to cack three after three after three. Jabari’s problem was his usual problem, his terrible handle and bad passing. He managed more turnovers (4) than shot attempts (3). He did go 4-4 from the line. Why not use him more from the corner? Ask Ime, ask Fred.
Finally, there were inexplicable decisions from Udoka. I’ll hit a couple of highlights. He played a lineup that had literally played zero regular season minutes before tonight, in the Rockets first playoff game in years. He decided to replace the lineup that had largely brought the Rockets back, within three points, from being down 23 points, with, you guessed it, more FVV shots. That’s really when the Rockets lost this game, when Udoka put Fred in around mid fourth quarter.
In the end, that’s a long list of problems, some very fixable. If the Rockets had held the Warriors to 95, and played well, but lost anyway, that would be fatal to their hopes, I think. Instead it’s very possible to hope that a very young team, overall, in its first playoff game, didn’t get smoked, despite playing so badly, might turn things around.
It’s such a familiar situation, despite the new Rockets cast, but there remains hope, maybe a quite a bit.
We’ll know a lot more on Wednesday. Can the Rockets play better? Certainly. Can Ime adjust anything on offense? Bring some fresh approaches? Or do the Rockets just have to try harder, and make more shots? We will find out.