The Houston Rockets‘ NBA opening night clash with the Oklahoma City Thunder should be fantastic. The Thunder will get their 2025 rings and raise their NBA championship banner as they welcome Kevin Durant back “home.”
Rockets vs. Thunder Preview: NBA Opening Night Betting and DFS Insights
Houston heads into the 2025-26 season with high hopes after finishing second in the 2024-25 standings and making the biggest splash of the offseason. The Rockets brought the 37-year-old “bucket getter” to solidify their offensive attack and a veteran presence.
While Durant was the big catch, the Rockets also solidified their depth by signing/re-signing Clint Capela, Steven Adams, and Dorian Finney-Smith. However, Fred VanVleet tore his ACL last month and is likely out for the season. Finney-Smith (ankle) and Jae-Sean Tate (ankle) will miss the Thunder contest, while Isaiah Crawford (ankle) is questionable.
Houston went 4-0 during the preseason, scoring a League-High 131 points. Jabari Smith Jr. led nine players in double figures during the exhibition season as coach Ime Udoka gave his “regulars” plenty of minutes. Twelve of the 15 Rockets who played in the four preseason games averaged 18 minutes a contest.
Oklahoma City enters the new campaign with essentially the same roster as last year. The Thunder went 4-2 during the exhibition season, though they struggled offensively; they were good defensively — the Thunder were the top-rated team on that end of the court last season.
Not surprisingly, after a long 2024-25 season, Billy Donovan used his regulars sparingly during the preseason. Ousmane Dieng was the only player on the Thunder’s 15-man roster to appear in all six preseason games, though Aaron Wiggins and Cason Wallace saw over 22 minutes in five contests.
Like Houston, OKC won’t have a full squad tonight, and 2025 first-round selection Thomas Sorber (torn ACL) will miss the entire campaign. Nikola Topic (Groin), Kenrich Williams (knee), Jalen Williams (wrist), and Isaiah Joe (knee) are sidelined tonight.
Rockets at Thunder Game Info
Time: 7:30 p.m. Oct. 21, 2025,
Venue: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City
Money Line: Thunder -240, Rockets +240
Spread: Thunder -7.5
Over/Under: 226.5
Injuries
Rockets
Fred VanVleet (torn ACL): Likely out for the season
Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle): Out tonight with no timetable to return
Jae’Sean Tate (ankle): Out, may be able to play against Detroit on Friday.
Isaiah Crawford (ankle): Question for tonight, not part of the Rockets rotation
Thunder
Thomas Sorber (torn ACL): will miss the entire campaign
Nikola Topic (Groin): Out indefinitely while recovering from testicular surgery
Kenrich Williams (knee): Out until at least mid-November.
Jalen Williams (wrist): Out, but should return soon, per ESPN.
Isaiah Joe (knee): Out after a knee injury on Oct. 12. Unknown timetable, though it is not expected to linger.
Starting Lineups
Houston Rockets
Coach Ime Udoka revealed on Monday that the Rockets’ starting lineup for tonight:
PG: Amen Thompson,
Wing: Kevin Durant
Wing: Jabari Smith Jr.
PF: Alperen Şengün
Oklahoma City Thunder Projected Starters
PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG: Cason Wallace
SF: Luguentz Dort
C: Chet Holmgren
PF: Isaiah Hartenstein
Betting Trends
Houston Rockets
- Was 47–41–1 ATS
- Rockets were just 1–3 ATS as dogs of +7.5 or more last season.
Oklahoma City Thunder
- Last year, 54–28 overall ATS, 36–19 ATS when favored by 7.5+
- 37–15–2 ATS at home last season
- Thunder won three of the five meetings against the Rockets, including both at home, and four of the five went over the total.
- best in the league last year ATS: 64–38–4
- 62–30–2 ATS as a home favorite
- Over hit 47 times in Thunder’s games in 2024-25
Thoughts and Prediction
Expect a high-intensity, hard-fought, and lower-scoring game than the 235 points the teams combined for last year. OKC, the more cohesive and deeper squad, is elite defensively, though there is some concern about their offensive efficiency in the early going, particularly with Williams. Meanwhile, Houston’s athleticism, increased scoring ability, size, and rebounding prowess make it a “live underdog.” According to The Spread.com, 63% of the bettors are backing the Rockets against the spread.
While OKC will only have 13 healthy bodies tonight and Williams’ absence will likely hurt in the long run, the Thunder went 12-0 without their second-leading scorer last year and were slightly more efficient on both ends.
On the other hand, despite Thompson being a star in the making and Sheppard showing significant development from a season ago, the loss of VanVleet is a considerable blow; the Rockets were 10-9 without VanVleet a season ago, as they were as efficient offensively. Also, the Rockets’ frontcourt depth took a hit with Finney-Smith’s and Tate’s absence.
Four Things To Watch:
SGA vs. The Slim-Reaper: Who will come up clutch? Both Gilgeous-Alexander and Durant were excellent against last year’s opposition compared to tonight’s.
Thompson and Reed Sheppard vs. Wallace and Alex Curoso: Can Thompson and Shephard handle the constant pressure that Wallace and Curoso will apply, or will they wilt?
Holmgren and Hartenstein vs. Sengun and Adams: Who will control the boards?
Which second unit will be more productive? The Thunder’s reserves were one of the best second units in the NBA last year. The Rockets’ bench is a little depleted with DFS and VanVleet’s injuries. Also, Sheppard needs to show he is ready to contribute early on after a disappointing rookie season.
Prediction
Houston has played this preseason, and Sengun, Durant, and Thompson will as well. But OKC is dominant at home, and over the past five years, the reigning NBA champions are 4-1 at home.
I have OKC winning 115-110 tonight, meaning I lean toward the Rockets to cover and the Under to hit. It is the first game of the season, and the offense is not yet up to the defense’s pace. Both teams are projected to be top-10 defenses this season.
Winner: Thunder 115-110
Bets: Pass on money line under playing a parlay with either Golden State or the Los Angeles Lakers.
Best Bet: Under 226.5 points
Second Bet: Rockets +7.5
Prop Bets and DFS Plays
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Fantasy: $10.2-$10.5K: high ownership expected
Gilgeous-Alexander is the top DFS play tonight. SGA has been fantastic against the Rockets over his career and will likely get an uptick in usage with Williams out. Last year versus the Rockets, he averaged 32.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 6.0 assists, and 2.4 steals while shooting 52% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. He saw his points and assists go up without Williams.
Gilgeous-Alexander scored 32+ points in three of the five contests against the Rockets last year and grabbed five or more boards on four occassions. Plus, opening night has been the platform for top players to shine recently.
Props:
- Over 31.5 points
- Over 1.5 3-pointers
- Over: 4.5 Rebounds
Kevin Durant
Fantasy: $9.2-$9.5k: Likely mid-to-high ownership
Durant may have his minutes managed, but tonight, he should be full Slim Reaper. Durant was extremely efficient against OKC with Phoenix last year, shooting over 50% from the field and nearly 42% from deep. He scored at least 24 points in all four games last season, averaging 27.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.0 blocks.
Over 24.5 points (-115)
Over 3.5 Assists (-153): Expected to share offensive
Over Points + Assists 28.5: -120
Alperen Şengün
Fantasy: $7.5–8.2k: high ownership
Sengun is a double-double machine. However, that may change with Adams and Capela in the mix. He thrives against the Thunder’s drop coverage and punishes a lighter Holmgren inside, besides being a monster on the glass.
Over 17.5 points (-110): Last year, averaged nearly 20 points a game when VanVleet was out.
Assists Under 6.5: Averaged five dimes a game versus the Thunder a season ago.
Others To Consider in DFS
Amen Thompson
Fantasy: $7.2-$7.5k: Moderate
Thompson is a fantasy star due to his ability to put up numbers across the board. Coming off a fantastic uptick, Thompson will get an uptick in usage with VanVleet out. Turnovers are a concern, so it is a volatile play tonight. He averaged 14.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.0 steals against OKC in 2024-25.
Points + Assists: Under 21.5 (-125)
Chet Holmgren
Fantasy: $7.1-7.5k: Moderate ownership
Holmgren’s health is always in question, but he appears ready for a breakout season. Holmgrenis projected to provide scoring, three-point shooting and rim[-protection tonight thogh rebounding is limited. He produced 20 points, seven rebounds, and three blocks last year versus the Rockets.,
Over 23.5 points and rebounds (-114)
Over 1.5 3-pointers
Isaiah Hartenstein
Fantasy: $5.4-$5.8k
Hartenstein is a cheaper option than Holmgren. While he doesn’t have the ceiling that Holmgren possesses, he has a solid floor as a double-double threat. The 7-footer averaged 16 points versus the Rockets a season ago, which were the most he scored versus any team. Plus, he was more productive when Williams was absent.
Over 9.5 points
Over 9.5 Rebounds
Over 3.5 Assists
Post a double-double (+140)
Cheaper Options
Cason Wallace
Salary $4.4-4.6k
Wallace is a solid DFS play, as he will be in the starting lineup and play 28-32 minutes. He averaged 11 points and four rebounds a game when playing over 30 minutes a game a season ago.
Over 7.5 points (-125)
© Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images
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