Trade or not to trade… Could history inform the Rockets decision?
The Houston Rockets are 12-6 and one game out of first place in the Western Conference. After a disappointing loss to the Portland Trail Blazers last Saturday, many in the landscape of sports media were pushing the narrative that the Rockets don’t have a “true star” and that until they either develop one or acquire one they won’t be true contenders in the west.
History dictates that most championship caliber teams have that “alpha level superstar” who can take over a game and make big plays during the biggest moments of the biggest games. In the few close games that the Rockets have played this season, it’s been clear that they have yet to establish one player to fill that role.
Jalen Green has come up big in the fourth quarter in several games this season. However, he is still struggling with his offensive consistency. Alperen Sengun is no doubt the best player on the team, but at times his decision making and playmaking ability have just not been there in clutch moments.
Whether it was inexplicably running the ball the full length of the court before tripping on himself, flailing to the ground and throwing the ball out of bounds in the season opener, or being unable corral the pass from Fred VanVleet while wide open under the basket versus the Bucks, it’s safe to say that Alpi is not yet consistently reliable in clutch situations.
So should the Houston Rockets be trying to acquire an “alpha level superstar”? The Rockets have been coming up in lots of trade rumors since before the season even began. First it was that they are pursuing Kevin Durant. Then the rumor was that they have interest in trading for Giannis. I’ve already let it be known that I wouldn’t touch Giannis with a 10-foot pole, but if there is all this smoke surrounding the team, then there must be a fire then, right?
Well, if you believe Brian Windhorst of ESPN, and Kelly Iko of The Athletic, then all these rumors may be just smoke and mirrors.
Earlier this week on Windhorst’s podcast ““The Hoop Collective” he stated:
“There are some teams that have been watching the Rockets, waiting to see if they move, and the message that they’ve sent out that those two guys, Tari Eason and Amen Thompson, guys that they’ve drafted in the last three years are untouchable. Now everything in life is a negotiation, especially in the NBA, but I’m told those guys are untouchable.”
Around that same time Kelly Iko made this tweet.
The Rockets are not interested in breaking up their core for Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, sources tell @TheAthletic. Houston, sitting at 10-5 and a game out of first in the West, remains focused on developing its young players as a collective.
— Kelly Iko (@KellyIko) November 20, 2024
As much as this information satisfies my fan-hood, as an analyst, I can’t help but ask myself, is it the right move? Right now, the stock is high on the young core or the Rockets. This may be as good a time as any to pull the trigger on someone like Giannis who would immediately be that alpha level player that they are missing.
These are the tough decisions that GMs and owners must make, and hindsight is always 20/20 but in the moment, it’s tough to know. As an old Rockets fan, I cannot help but compare these moments to past moments in the team’s history.
In 2004, the Rockets traded away three core players for Tracy McGrady, Juwan Howard and the salary fillers Tyron Lue and Reece Gaines. Most Rockets fans probably have the belief that the Rockets made the right choice moving in from Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, and Kelvin Cato, but there is no doubt the Rockets traded talent depth for that top tier ““alpha level” talent.
Would the Rockets have been better off standing pat and adding the same quality role players they would eventually add to a deeper core of talent even though the top talent would not have been to the level of McGrady?
Cuttino Mobley certainly believes so. “We would have won the championship… Jeff VanGundy messed up.” That’s what Mobley told the TFU Podcast , when they asked him how he thought the Rockets would have fared had they not made the blockbuster trade that sent him and Francis to Orlando.
We probably should not expect anything else from a player who is confident in his abilities and has pride, but there may be something to the idea that the Rockets may have fared better with a deeper pool of talent. Depth was an issue after the trade for McGrady, arguably up until 2008.
The Rockets may not have known it at the time, but when they traded for James Harden in 2012, they were making a move for an ““alpha level superstar.” What makes this move different from the McGrady deal is that GM Daryl Morey absolutely fleeced the Oklahoma City Thunder in that trade.
However, James Harden was an alpha level superstar for eight seasons, and while they did have unprecedented regular season success, ultimately their goal of defeating the Golden State Warriors and becoming NBA champions never came to fruition.
The only time in Rockets history that they achieved their goal is when they drafted their alpha level superstar and built a team around that star. That didn’t happen overnight. I’m not going to compare Sengun to the greatest center in Rockets franchise history, that’s not fair. However, Sengun is only 22 and has gotten better each season in the league.
Sengun is far from his prime. Tari Eason and Amen Thompson are both in their early twenties, as is Jalen Green and the remaining young core that is becoming more and more coveted by teams who may see the writing on the wall regarding the “stars” on their respective teams.
The Rockets have deficiencies, there is no doubt about that, but their strength has been in their depth. I believe their goal should be to make a move that shores up those deficiencies, without sacrificing all their depth. That likely won’t land them the likes of Durant or Giannis, but it also keeps their window open for a lot longer than if you lose all that depth in return for an aging superstar.
Can the Rockets be patient and resist the urge to pull the trigger on a move that will dominant the headlines but may not necessarily make the Rockets dominant on the floor? It appears so far; the answer is yes. So if a big trade for a star isn’t the right move, what kind of move can they make to help them improve on their biggest weakness, their shooting? I’d like to explore just that in my next piece.