AKA – David Stern Controls The NBA! From Beyond The Grave!
Very Important Disclaimer That No One Will Read, Or If They Do Read, Take Seriously.
This is an attempt at humor. It’s also a thought experiment of sorts. It’s an attempt to determine if there are principles and outcomes, openly expressed, advocated, by NBA management, that are consistent with highly unlikely NBA Draft Lottery events we’ve witnessed over the past few seasons. Or if there are league positions and desires that are quite consistent with events and outcomes. You’ll have to judge if I’ve played fair with these or not.
On a more serious note, this seeming chaos we see may just be the chaos of flat odds. It makes tanking unpredictable, so “chalk” draft picks aren’t likely. When they aren’t likely, well you see unlikely stuff.
I’m going to write something about security, possible failure points, and about what people think they know, and what they actually know, or could prove, about the NBA Draft lottery process. This is not because I think this is happening, but more thinking about how it might happen is worth considering. There are lots of things we think of as sure, secure, that couldn’t reasonably be manipulated, or compromised, but are, fairly routinely, by determined adversaries.
I wrote so much about the first part, that the security, “how it might happen” and “what could a team actually do if they suspected something” part will have to wait.
There are probably more disclaimers I should write., but disclaimers are boring, and tedious. It’s more fun to pretend to be the Ghost of David Stern.
Meet The NBA’s Forever Commissioner: David Stern.
Hi, I’m David Stern. You probably remember me as the greatest Commissioner in NBA history. You will recall I guided the Association from an irrelevant also-ran league that had Finals games aired via taped delay, to the pinnacle of global cool and glory. I even managed to convince the majority of you that the greatest player ever was that tediously compulsive gambler and all around annoying franchise owner, Michael Jordan, rather than the Hakeem Olajuwon. Yes, I made that happen, it was a great story, right?
You have probably heard that I’m dead. This, I am forced to admit, is true. Fortunately, through superior foresight and planning, death has been merely an inconvenience in my continuing to preside over the league I love so well, the NBA.
What, you thought all this success was Adam Silver? Record media deals and franchise values? That’s cute.
Adam is a nice boy, and enjoys many independent thoughts and actions of his own. Let’s face it, a lot of what he does is boring. Furthermore, I do not want to be “in the bedroom” with him under any circumstances. There are limits. When the NBA chips are down, of course, I take over. Detractors might call this “ supernatural possession” but I prefer to think of it as “benevolent guidance and control”. You can’t argue with the results.
Sometimes I take an even more direct role. You may think a “ghost”, or as I prefer to think of it, Actively Deceased Executive, can’t grab a particular ping pong ball and put it in a chute without some tedious executive type noticing. You would be wrong. Very. Wrong.
Why, you ask, would I do this? As ever, I have my reasons. Basketball reasons.
Let’s start with how I see things, and want them to work for the NBA.
- I want what’s best for the NBA. I am, if nothing else, paternalistic about the league. Overall this means an NBA of fun, competitive games, full arenas, big stars, great story lines, and match ups you want to watch. In a very real sense, this also means a profitable NBA, and to ensure that, success for certain teams is necessary. By this I specifically mean the Lakers, and a few others. Don’t look shocked, I said as much when I was pre-deceased.
- I do not believe that deliberately trying to fail should ever be rewarded. Yes, I understand that the draft is the only fairly probable way certain teams can get the stars they need to compete. But this “tanking” has become abominable, a blight on the integrity of the league and the games. When you are dead, you see certain things, things that really are abominable. Tanking is worse. A monster can’t help being monstrous, but teams can avoid being grotesque, by trying to win. If it’s clear a team is trying, and is still bad, through bad luck, or events outside their control, that’s different.
- These principles may seem to be at odds. But they aren’t, not with Daddy David’s firm ectoplasmic grip on the balls, so to speak, of the NBA Draft. Ectoplasm is an ugly word. Anyway, if your team needs a bit of help, like say Detroit, then fine, a year in the dumps will get you a 1-1 pick.
- Other things that will get you a good pick? Losing your local hero, and franchise icon, say that icon is LeBron. That will get you great picks. An owner buying that perennial sad sack New Orleans team will do it. (Note to self, maybe it’s time to just give up on NOLA?)
- Signing stars, and trying to win, but it all goes wrong? It depends. How arrogant were you about it? The only person in this whole NBA business whose ego is justified is me. How smart are you feeling now, Matt Ishbia? Philly is a sad story, but Phoenix? That Beale deal was just stupid, so you can just suffer for a while, Matt. Teams that keep going to the draft well though, like Detroit? That’ll get you a whole lot of #5.
- Also, I can only get you the pick, I can’t pick players for you. Well, I probably could, and do better than most of you, but I won’t. I have other things to do. Ghost things.
- I tried to Signal Very Clearly that deliberate losing is a bad plan with the flattened odds. These odds, to me, couldn’t be a more obvious discouragement to tanking. With odds this flat, teams really ought to try to win a little. It won’t make much difference to your chances, and everyone, especially our media partners, and your putative fans, will appreciate the effort.
- But what do all these smarty pants mathlete team GMs do? They want to make sure they’re top five. Even when the odds are terrible, they still want to game those shitty odds. Some people are just too clever to be told. They have to learn the hard way.
- But without just going to The Wheel, what to do? Basically, punish teams that could have been better, but chose not to be better. Utah, Brooklyn, Charlotte, Washington are standouts right now. They all could have played better, won more, but they were all trying to clang down to the very bottom. So they all made up injuries, they played well for three quarters (Brooklyn) then coughed up the win. They played the weirdest damned lineups ever (Utah), and they all sat healthy guys with bogus injuries. All to be worse. To lose on purpose. Well, did they enjoy THIS lottery?
- Will these GMs learn? We’ll see. I can do this, in theory, eternally, Danny. Can you keep your job eternally, even in Utah?
- I’ve also tried to show that when you try, the league sees it, respects it. The Rockets, last season, ended up .500. They stated they were ending their rebuild, and they did. I appreciate that kind of frank discourse. So they got, somehow, despite the odds, the #3 pick. A nice little reward. Maybe it wasn’t a great draft class, but even I can’t control that. Were you watching Danny Ainge? Or were you once again telling yourself in the mirror that you’re the smartest guy in the room? (I can see you when you think you’re alone Danny, don’t bother denying it.)
- I’ve got things to do, ghost things, so let’s get to that big issue we’ve all got flagged. Flagged, get it? Well. Let’s see. Instead of auctioning off one of the most valuable players in the league, Luka Doncic, what did Nico Harrison do? He reportedly had a secret dialog with only Rob Pelinka, and also Rob’s sentient tight leather jacket (we’ll talk about that later, it worries me). He traded Luka to the Lakers, a 26 year old,consistent All NBA player, to the Lakers for, well, a lot less than Minnesota paid for Rudy Gobert. Does that make sense? No. Frankly, it does not. It stinks. Unless? Unless you knew there was a reward for helping the NBA stay great, and by that I mean helping the Lakers stay great.
- So Dallas gets 1-1, with a player that should continue Dallas’ lineage of melanin-challenged heroes. He might be the palest Maverick yet. Cooper’s from Maine, where the sun can only legally shine for 75 days per year. Dallas tried to win. They tried to make the playoffs. They want to be good. They also traded the young player who dragged them to the previous Finals, to the Lakers, to play with LeBron James.
- If that sort of NBA public spirtedness isn’t worth 1-1 over the endless shit shows in Utah, Brooklyn, Washington, Charlotte, and Toronto, what is? Besides, how many pearls do we have to throw before the swine in Charlotte? In DC? They’d only screw it up.
By now, I think, a lot of those “Highly Improbable” results are making more sense to you. I hope you now understand where I’m coming from (From Beyond The Grave! The Great Beyond! Ha ha!). Honestly, I don’t care all that much if you don’t get it, or don’t like it, because I know I’m right anyway. Many of you don’t have a benevolent supernatural being guiding you, protecting you, helping you. That’s a shame. The NBA does, though, and it’s me, David Stern, the Forever Commissioner.