Turgid Rockets fall to Warriors 104-93

Sometimes You Just Need Near League Average Offense

This will be somewhat short, as these sorts of recaps aren’t always easy to write when frustration levels are high. This will be less a rehash of the game, and more my impressions.

Let’s start with these caveats:

• I’m happy overall with where the Rockets are. No matter how this series ends, it will have been a good season, the best in quite some time.
• The Rockets remain a very young team. A team where five of the Rockets eight players getting minutes tonight were playing in their first road playoff game.
• Teams with no playoff experience for the key players most often don’t win in their first playoffs. The Rockets are very much such a team.
• The Warriors are far more experienced team, and where they play young players, it’s very much within the context of a well-established team concept. They adjust to opponents very well, because they are well coached and experienced.
• The Rockets defense is excellent. It truly is.
• The referees weren’t to blame for this outcome. There’s not much to complain about in this one, other than, of course, the private and exclusive set of rules afforded Draymond Green.
• Ime Udoka is a good coach. I think he should remain the Rockets coach.
• The future for the Rockets is very bright, but likely isn’t upon them now.
• I’m fairly happy with the young Rockets, despite tonight. I do not believe they were placed in a position to succeed on offense, and that’s mostly not on them.
• Some of the Rockets problems on offense seemed to be nerves, which can be expected to improve.
• Steph Curry is the NBA’s greatest shooter, and had a great night. Which you heard a lot about on the dreadful ABC game call. (Please, no Jay Bilas NBA ever again. This was his NBA debut, and he needs to immediately go back to college basketball and never trouble the NBA again. Straight up awful.)

With all that said:

• The Rockets offense simply isn’t good enough – as it is designed. It’s largely stagnant and motionless. It’s easy to plan against, and Ime Udoka and company have demonstrated close to zero response to effectively counter the same defensive scheme the Rockets have faced all season.
• The offensive game the Rockets are trying to play might work if they had a player capable of normally getting by defense and scoring contested shots in close, or passing out through traffic. They DO NOT HAVE such a player, so this offense is instead a tepid, moribund, disaster in the half court, amplified by the playoffs forcing more half court play. Hoping that someone will resemble such a player some nights isn’t a plan.
• The Warriors attacked Rockets ball handlers with doubles, traps and high pressure on their dribble. They dared the Rockets ballhandler to make a good pass out of this situation of very active defenders harassing them. They didn’t make those passes very often, and calling up picks didn’t free the ballhandler, it simply lead to more defensive traffic.
• The Warriors subsequently packed nearly every defender in and around the paint on Rockets drives. The Warriors aren’t a big team, and have little rim protection, but it’s very hard to attack the rim with so many defenders in the paint. These Rockets drives into the paint, or passes to Sengun often occurred very late into the shot clock, with much time being wasted by the ball handler trying to get out of the double, or wait for a pick.
• The compressed shot clock due to initial pressure at the top of the three point arc led to rushed and bad looks.
• When the Rockets did penetrate the paint, and no shot presented itself, the defenders in the paint, especially Draymond Green, were waiting for the pass out, the kick off the drive. They often made such a pass, to an open shooter, difficult or impossible. The Rockets had 14 turnovers, but it felt like more, due to a number of deflections and other disruptions that weren’t turnovers, but caused a side out reset into the same defensive problems.
• So while the Warriors were daring the Rockets to make open shots, those shots were actually few, due to the almost complete failure of any sort of drive and kick, or the baseline dunker’s spot passes to Amen Thompson.
• The Rockets, seeing these problems, became tentative on offense. They had more success attacking earlier in the shot clock, but were reluctant to do so. This makes sense for a young core in it’s first road playoff game. It makes less sense for veterans.
• The Rockets were not only tentative, they rushed the shots they did get in close, and missed short looks of nearly every sort, the kind of shots that a team should expect to make. It seems the Rockets anticipated defensive a swarming response, and the Warriors slapping at the ball so much they rushed and missed even when such a response wasn’t present. Amen Thompson and Jalen Green paused and refused to attack players they can easily beat off the dribble, because they anticipated the defense collapsing around them, it seemed. What as the response to give them more options there? Nothing.
• They missed FTs. The Rockets were 14-24 from the FT line. They had more FT attempts from Golden State. Again, this wasn’t a badly reffed game. The experienced Rockets made 10-12 free throws (Fred, Dillon, Steven Adams(!)). The rest made 4-12, with Alpie going 1-6. Jalen Green shot zero FT.
• A combination of better FT shooting (not perfect) and made bunnies might have lead to a win.
• The Rockets offense simply isn’t good enough. It’s simplistic, and does not put players into a good position to succeed. It doesn’t suit the personnel well. The Rockets coaching staff have developed, seemingly, no effective response to the defense most teams play against the Rockets, and have played all season long. Golden State played a defense the Rockets have absolutely seen, many time, but played it at playoff intensity.
• “Play better.” isn’t an offensive adjustment, or a play. It’s a hope.
• The Rockets have almost no plays run out of a timeout. They just pause, and do the same thing they always do. Stagnant PNR at the top of the 3pt arc. This might work if they had SGA, or James Harden. They don’t. The Rockets rarely even advance the ball, to make a play easier to run, most times. Contrast this with Golden State’s scoring out of timeouts or stoppages seemingly every time tonight, or at least getting a good look.
• Fred VanVleet simply isn’t good enough at his main job, being a point guard. He doesn’t play anyone open, or find easy looks, almost ever. He’s even worse at his second job, scoring. He provides little to no threat anywhere. This hasn’t been a few bad games in a row, it’s most of a season of bad games. The idea of his value has been raised because there’s no better option, not because he’s been that good.
• Ime Udoka has yet to personally accept responsibility for any failing of the Rockets (I’ve listened to nearly every one of his pressers), or of coaching. He says “We didn’t…” but never “I didn’t”. The coaching is flawless, it seems, only the players fail.
• The Rockets are able to play sophisticated, fast, effective, aggressive and sometimes nearly flawless defense.
• I refuse to believe a team that can play that kind of defense isn’t capable of doing more advanced work than their predictable, stagnant, ineffective half court, offense. Unless someone just has a good shooting night, the Rockets offensive attack in the half court has no real hope. A team that can play the sort of fast, connected defense the Rockets do is capable of at least moving enough to get teammates easy looks. Their offense is meant to provide spacing, but if you watch how defenses play them, it just doesn’t. So do something else.
• By packing the paint, Golden State took away much of the Rockets offensive rebounding edge. By not turning the ball over, they blunted most possible fast breaks.
• The Rockets should be able to win nearly any game where they hold opponents well under NBA scoring average, or to 94 points (first two games). 104 is 7 points below league average.
• Maybe the Rockets would shoot better if they got easier looks? Jalen Green is quite a good 3pt shooter, for example, on catch and shoot threes.

This playoff series remains winnable, and yet I’m afraid the Rockets won’t win it. The reason won’t be their excellent defense. It will be because the Warriors have the best player, and also can find looks that provide good shots for the likes of Gary Payton II and Buddy Hield. It’s certainly possible the young Rockets will simply make the “Play Better” adjustment, and they’d better, because nothing else seems to be on the horizon.