Duridiculous.
The Houston Rockets made the second big trade splash of the NBA off season with their move to make Kevin Durant a Rocket.
How do the Rockets’ lineups look with Durant in them?
TL;DR answer – Great, thanks.
This assumes that Kevin Durant doesn’t suffer an age-related collapse, nor get horribly injured. There’s reason to believe he won’t suffer the first, as Kevin Durant posted the second best EFG% of his career last season. As for injuries? Who knows? If you were an Eastern Conference player who wore number “0” in the playoffs this season, there’s a 50% chance you ruptured your Achilles tendon in the playoffs (Haliburton, Microsoft, Lillard). So, honestly, you never know. We can expect Durant to miss some time, can we expect reasonable minutes? Probably not, given the character of both Durant, and his friend, Ime Udoka.
Anyhow, let’s look at lineups.
On a usage basis the Rockets have replaced Jalen Green’s 24% Usage Rate with Durant’s 29% usage rate. This is good, very good.
Why? The answer is that Kevin Durant, by some metrics, was the #1 rated isolation scorer in the NBA. Jalen Green? 56th. That means that possessions that once went nowhere, sometimes for no fault of Jalen Green, sometimes very much the fault of Jalen Green, will now be in the hands of Kevin Durant, more often than not. Kevin Durant scored 1.16 points per ISO attempt. Jalen Green scored 0.86. Despite the much higher usage rate for Durant, Green averaged about the same number of attempts per game last year.
That is, over a game, let alone a season, a real difference, given the usage rate, which I expect to stay about the same, maybe decline a bit, as Durant is a fairly willing passer, averaging 4.4 assists per game for his career. I expect given the spacing he’ll provide, that assists number will go up.
But Durant was mostly brought in, in some respects, for the playoffs. The Rockets were able to manage a second place (though somewhat tightly contested behind OKC) finish in the Loaded Western Conference (it truly is, though) without Durant. Durant has averaged 29pts, 8rbs, 4ast, 1stl, 1blk on a 53% EFG fin 13 playoff seasons. Green, albeit in one series only, averaged 13pts, 5rbs, 3ast, .5 stl with a 44% EFG. I think it’s fair to say, given the low scores that throwing an extra 16 points, with better efficiency, on the Rockets scoresheet wins them their last playoff series fairly easily.
Let’s look at lineups, the more fun part perhaps. Some commenters have suggested that Durant’s defense will be better than Green’s, saying Green is a bad defender. He isn’t anymore, though he may be on Phoenix. He’s an average to slightly above or below (depending on metrics) defender.
Durant is about the same. That said, Durant is 7’ something, and when motivated, which is usually, tries (a key aspect of defense). This makes his height, and long arms, really work for his team, on defense. If your plan is to stick him on the opponents worst non PG (mostly) player, that works. It works because the Rockets have plus, to perhaps Defensive Player of The Year, defenders everywhere else in a typical starting lineup. Yes, including Sengun, go look it up for yourself. He’s not just passable now, he’s good-to-very-good. 37-year-old (at the start of next season) Durant doesn’t have to be your best defender. He has to be your fourth or fifth best. He can do that. Most opponents won’t call Durant up in a pick, as he can play back, and still challenge shots or stay with a driver.
Now let’s look at offense. The plan for basically every single serious team last season was the same, against the Rockets. Pack the paint, dare the Rockets to shoot, run out on shooters, and harass the turgid, predicatable dribble hand off that happened damn near every play at the top of the three point line.
Durant simply destroys that approach. Ruins it. If you leave the mid range open, he shoots about 55%. If you leave him to shoot threes, he shot that at 43% last season. He’s nearly impossible to block, or even really contest that well. I think even the Rockets can’t break Durant’s shot. If you leave him to ISO, well, he’s the best at it. If you double him, you’ll probably pay, as he doesn’t mind passing.
That dunker spot for Amen that got closed? It’s open again, because most defenses pretty much have to send a big on Durant to guard him. He’s a willing passer.
Moreover, a defense must, must, come out on Durant, or he hangs 36pts on you, barely breaking a sweat.
So I think the old way of defending the Rockets fairly putrid offensive scheme under Udoka fails, now. Durant is more or less plug-and-play, (and for better or worse, and usually better with a career average of 27 points per game usually better). He’s more or less scheme immune, for his team, and the opponents defense, which is a benefit in this case I think.
I predict Sengun will have much more room to operate, and pass, and his efficiency number make a career high. A big, big, PNR with Durant and Sengun should give other coaches nightmares. Amen Thompson driving and dishing to Durant made the nightmare worse.
Also, the Rockets are going to be able to run some simply giant teams. Amen, Tari, Durant, Jabari, Sengun. That’s a perfectly plausible lineup. The smallest guy is Amen, at 6’7”. I think the trade also gets Amen, Tari and Jabari more minutes, filling the Dillon Brooks slot. The trade probably also opens playing time for Reed Sheppard, as he’s the only other actual PG, besides Fred Van Vleet on a reworked deal. Even Cam Whitmore, if he’ll play defense, has a real chance to shine (and oh, yes, he’s big, too).
Only Reed and Fred are small, and Reed isn’t that short. He’s 6’2-6’3” (yes, he is).
With all the usual caveats, I think this should be tremendous fun. Durant and Udoka like one another, and what Durant wants is to hoop, and win, and do his thing. It turns out that his thing is exactly what the Rockets need. I don’t care about his contract for one-to-three years, because this opens a window to real contention.
The Rockets made a big move, that was exactly what they needed. They had the defense, now they have arguably the greatest offensive player in NBA history, still playing at a very high level, and protected from decline in many ways by the youth and athleticism of the Rockets.
LFG!