Smith is moving to the bench. Does that say anything about his future in H-town?
The Houston Rockets have been struggling with injuries in recent days. Starting point guard Fred VanVleet has missed 11 straight games, though he’s due to return in Saturday night’s contest against the Sacrmento Kings. Power forward Jabari Smith Jr. missed 22 games of his own before returning right after the All-Star break. But with the team finally fully healthy, the Rockets have announced that Amen Thompson will remain in the starting lineup and Smith will move to the bench. With the former number three overall pick starting 190 of 192 possible career games (that he was healthy for) since being drafted, does this signal anything about Smith’s future in Houston?
When the Rockets drafted Smith at number three overall in 2022, I was elated. As I’m sure you all recall, the Orlando Magic fooled the entire NBA world by feinting interest in Smith in the draft lead up, only to pivot at the last minute to take Paolo Banchero at number one overall. I thought Smith was the perfect fit for the Rockets, and I spent a lot of time watching his success at Auburn, so to me, it was a great development. However, Banchero went on to win Rookie of the Year, while Smith struggled under former Rockets head coach Stephen Silas.
Since then, Smith has certainly gotten better, though nowhere near the levels we were hoping for from a number three overall pick. In fact, many of his averages this season — 11.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 1 assist per game — are even lower than they were in his rookie year under Silas. Those don’t tell the whole story. Anyone watching Smith on a regular basis can see he hasn’t regressed, but he certainly hasn’t progressed in the way any of us were hoping.
The main issue is the shooting. Smith came into the league with the reputation of a smooth and efficient long-range shooter, knocking down 42 percent of his threes in his lone year at Auburn. That silky form came with him to the pros, but the accuracy unfortunately has not, as Smith’s career NBA three-point percentage sits at just 33.7 percent.
He’s been a good defender and rebounder, and there’s no doubt that having a 6’10” forward who can help on the backside down low or switch onto just about anyone on the wing is an asset, but he’s struggled finding his way offensively in the Rockets’ system. Silas admitted to not running any plays whatsoever for Smith during his rookie season, and Smith’s shot attempts have progressively decreased each year under Ime Udoka. He sometimes tries to do too much when he gets offensive opportunities, and his main noticeable weakness coming into the league — a questionable handle — hasn’t gotten much better.
Back on the positive side, Smith is a well-known good locker room presence and teammate, and is almost always a team player in interviews, but a lot of what he was bringing in the positive on the court — defense and rebounding — is being accomplished at the same level or better by Thompson. Udoka famously says, “It’s about who finishes the game,” and Smith is sure to find himself on the court in crunchtime often, but the move to the bench is certainly a little disconcerting for those of us who’ve been waiting patiently for him to finally break out.
The one thing that could really seperate Smith from Thompson — the long range shooting — is still coming in at a below average level for Smith. But the Rockets were just 12-10 over the 22 games that Smith missed, meaning they’re 25-10 when he’s playing. He does things that help the Rockets win. So where does this all leave him?
The Rockets have a notorious roster crunch coming. While Jalen Green and Alperen Sengun were signed to extensions this year, the Rockets are going to have decisions to make on a plethora of young players moving forward, inclduing Smith, Thompson, Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard and Cam Whitmore. They have a boatload of incoming draft picks, including first rounders from the Phoenix Suns and swap rights still left with the Brooklyn Nets. That’s a lot of players and draft capital they’ll need to make decisions on. Thompson looks like a budding star. He’s not going anywhere. The rest, including Smith, are up in the air.
After this season, Smith has one more year on his rookie deal, worth $12.3 million. His qualifying offer is expected to be around $16 million. He’ll be certainly looking for a long-term deal wherever he ends up. Spotrac currently has Smith estimated for a $30 million cap hold for his restricted free agency season of 206-2027, meaning that’s what they expect he’ll be after. The QO is fine. The $30 mill? That’s too much money for Smith’s current production.
But it’s important to also remember that Smith is just 21 years old. He’s still very young. He didn’t come into the NBA as an amazing athlete. Those guys tend to do well right away. The guys that rely on skills, such as shooting, team and individual defense, rebounding, often need time to develop them at the NBA level. And there’s no doubting that Smith needs more confidence, particularly in that long-distance jump shot.
But with the coming roster crunch, it’s still TBD whether he’s able to do that in Houston or not. I still have faith in Jabari. I watched him dominate too much at Auburn to lose all of my confidence in him this quickly. But there’s also the truth that he hasn’t lived up to what many of us had hoped for or expected. A lot of us were sold on the Chris-Bosh-with-better-shooting comparisons. What we’re getting instead has been just a serviceable NBA role player.
There’s still time for Smith to turn it around. He’s got the rest of this season, a likely Rockets playoff run, and then all of next year to show his value. But should Smith fail to take the next step we’ve all been waiting for, it’s going to be tough for even his biggest defenders (of which I have been one) to justify not getting something for him in a trade before he hits free agency. I remain a Jabari Smith Jr. fan. But I’m a Rockets fan first and foremost, and should Smith fail to take next the step in the next year, it may be time for the Rockets to move on from the draft pick I originally felt they were very lucky to land.