The Houston Rockets are down 3-1 to their arch rivals, the Golden State Warriors. After an incredible season cementing themselves as a lively playoff squad, they are now in do-or-die territory. If their season does end in Game 5, it will undoubtedly increase the expectations for changes this offseason. The team is still very far away from having a viable playoff offense. Besides one good game from Jalen Green, Houston’s best offense has come from a gimmick. In Game 5, fully entrenched in do-or-die territory, the Rockets may as well go all in on it.
What The Rockets Game 5 Will Say About Their Offseason
Many teams have been down 3-1 before, and it’s usually been a black spot on their season. Only 13 teams have won their series from being down 3-1, compared to 277 that have gone on to lose. Furthermore, 175 of those losses have been handed out in the fifth game of the series.
Houston’s remarkable season may come to an end on Wednesday night. You can expect them to go down swinging if it does. The Rockets should go all in on one big swing in particular.
Houston’s Gimmick
Over the four games of this series, Houston has two players with a positive plus/minus. Those are All-Star Alperen Sengun, at +3.8, and his backup, 11-year-veteran Steven Adams, at +5.8. Houston head coach Ime Udoka started seriously experimenting with his double-big lineups late in the season after the return and benching of Jabari Smith Jr.
The double-big lineup has allowed Houston to crush opponents on the glass and use second efforts to compensate for their dismal offense. The Warriors have struggled to deal with it—that is, conventionally. Head coach Steve Kerr has consistently attacked Adams’ underwhelming free-throw percentage to force him out of the game.
Adams is a career 53.3% shooter from the free-throw line. Golden State has been intentionally fouling him to keep him from punishing them with offensive rebounds. At this point, though, with nothing else to lose, the Rockets should just let Adams bomb away. The big has shot 50% on 3.0 free throws per game in the series. That point per possession is barely worse than Houston’s 107.4 points per 100 possessions overall. The strategy also builds up fouls on the Warriors and deprives them of conventional fast breaks while putting the Rockets in the bonus.
It speaks volumes about Houston’s offence that Adams is a player the team has become dependent on for offence. Despite the Hack-a-Shaq tactics being deployed against him, Adams is certainly no Shaquille O’Neal. For his career, he averages 7.6 playoff points per game. He isn’t a post scorer, and he certainly isn’t a shooter. What he is is bigger and stronger than anyone the Warriors can throw at him. The Rockets need to exploit that as much as possible.
What Game 5 Says About The Rockets’ Offseason
It’s to Adams’ immense credit that he hasn’t been played off the floor by the Warriors’ shooting. But besides the one and only Stephen Curry, the Warriors aren’t the shooting team they used to be. It obviously makes a difference that the other Splash Brother, Klay Thompson, moved on to greener (before becoming hospital green) pastures in Dallas. But they also swapped Andrew Wiggins for Jimmy Butler. While that move was an unequivocal upgrade to their offense, it did reduce Golden State’s already very Curry-reliant shooting spacing.
Still, when a team has the best shooter ever, it’s hard not to consider them a good shooting team. By surviving on defense even against that, Adams has proven his partnership with Sengun is a viable strategy. He will be an unrestricted free agent this offseason. The team will probably look to bring him back. The bigger conversation revolves around whether it makes sense to build a team so that an Adams and Sengun partnership is a focal point. It fits with Udoka’s philosophy, but doesn’t project long-term success.
A Wobbly Cornerstone
Houston’s only win in the series came off a heater from Green in Game 2. Green has shot 7 for 19 in the two games since and scored 17 total points. It doesn’t appear unrealistic to say that the Rockets need Green to perform at a franchise cornerstone level to have a serious shot at progressing. It does seem at least a little unrealistic to expect him to do that. Houston could return with a very similar team in 2025-26 and expect to enjoy a relatively high degree of fan satisfaction. That is, until their season ends with minimal signs of improvement from 2024-25. A season-ending poor performance from Green could nudge the franchise closer to moving on, even if it would be selling low on a talented player.
The Last Word
The Rockets exceeded expectations in 2024-25, and they may still survive this playoff series. Regardless, Houston’s young players will all be better for the experience. There’s just some question as to whether they’ll all still be playing for Houston after this offseason.
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