How is Houston handling the selection ahead of the draft?
The Houston Rockets currently find themselves in a unique position heading into the 2025 NBA Draft. Holding the No. 10 overall pick, Houston has become one of the more intriguing teams to watch ahead of the draft (not because of who they might select), but because of the increasing likelihood that they may not be the one selecting there at all.
According to multiple league sources, the Rockets have received more interest in this year’s pick than they did during any of their previous four lottery selections, despite those being higher in the draft order. While that may sound odd on the surface, it makes sense when you consider how difficult it truly is to trade into the top six. In prior years, Houston also wasn’t a playoff team, while this past season, they were the two seed. It makes much more sense for the 10th pick this season to be traded, rather than a top-five selection in years past.
However, what is the 10th pick’s true value? And what exactly should Houston choose to do with it? That’s the two lingering questions surrounding the pick ahead of draft night. The pick itself is valuable, but not too valuable. In a quality draft class, it can be a selection that can either net a high-upside rookie, be paired with a player to swing for a veteran upgrade, or also be moved entirely for future draft capital. What the Rockets should do with number ten though, is where it gets tricky.
While sure, it may be enticing to just trade for future draft capital or select a player you believe can be a valuable addition to the team, there’s one other possibility that should be absolutely considered. Kevin Durant. This should not be a surprise to anybody. Houston has shown interest in Durant since the trade deadline, and Durant listed the Rockets as one of his three preferred destinations for a trade. The mutual interest is 100% there…but a potential trade gets tricky when you consider how the Suns value KD in comparison to how Houston values KD.
In a possible trade scenario where Durant ends up on the Rockets, it’s almost guaranteed that the 10th pick is moved. The issue faced there, is the fact that Phoenix wants multiple first-rounders, as well as quality players who can help them. Houston has future Suns picks, so Phoenix is holding them to a higher trade offer than other teams. It’s a standstill. Two mutually interested parties, but two differing opinions and valuations on what’s being asked for.
If no such trade ends up materializing, don’t be shocked if they trade down to a later pick or out of the draft entirely. Doing so could ease the team’s cap sheet heading into a summer where financial flexibility may prove vital. Houston is expected to be active in trade conversations, and parting with the 10th pick could free up enough room to either absorb salary or facilitate a multi-team deal.
This doesn’t mean the Rockets are anti-draft. They’ve shown they can find talent in the draft wherever they select, whether it’s snagging Tari Eason at 17, getting Cam Whitmore at 20, or Alperen Sengun at 16. But context matters. The Rockets are past the point of simply hoarding youth. They were the two-seed in a stacked Western Conference that’s only going to be better next season. You need to do something that can help you this season, whether it be a player you trade for, or future picks to help free up cap space for free agency.
That’s not to discredit how drafting at 10 could still yield a contributor. But how that pick fits into a team already balancing a handful of young talent to account for is another question entirely. That’s why this front office is exploring every possible avenue. Houston simply will not be going into the draft leaving any stone unturned. This is not a “we’re going to panic and trade this pick” situation, but a real shift from the just past rebuild phase to win-now urgency. And how Houston handles this draft will be the first sign of what their offseason plans are.
All signs are pointing to Stone and his team to work the phones hard leading up to June 26. Whether that results in a trade, a draft night surprise, or a move for future flexibility, one thing is clear: the Rockets are going to do whatever they feel is best. If they see a talent at 10, they’re going to pick them. If they get a high-end trade offer for 10, I wouldn’t be shocked if they take it. If the Suns lower their price for Kevin Durant, Houston may very well pounce on the opportunity.
This draft is where Houston sets the tone for their offseason, and I trust Rafael Stone to do what’s best.