After winning the 2024-25 NBA championship, the OKC Thunder were crowned as the next dynasty. While they do have three young star players, including a perennial MVP candidate on their roster, recent moves might have reduced their dynasty potential. If we look at the future of both the Houston Rockets and the Thunder, the former might have a better chance of becoming a dynasty.
Why the Rockets, Not Thunder, Are the Real Dynasty of Tomorrow
The biggest reason why the Rockets might have a better future than the Thunder is their negotiating power. We live in a new era of first and second aprons, repeater taxes, and everything in between. It is clear that the Thunder didn’t want to repeat the James Harden mistake of 2012. Yet, in doing so, they might have recklessly spent a bit too much money. This summer, the Thunder may have spent more than $800 million on extensions to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and Jalen Williams. The Rockets have yet to show their negotiating power with Kevin Durant, the guy they traded for this summer. But if we look at the other stars on their team, they are in a better position.
Chet Holmgren vs. Alperen Sengun
Last season, the Rockets signed Alperen Sengun to a five-year, $185 million contract. They somehow negotiated a smaller deal than the max with Sengun, who was arguably their best player. On the other hand, the Thunder gave Holmgren a five-year, rookie max extension that can reach up to $250 million. Sengun has made an All-Star team, and Holmgren has yet to do it. Looking at their stats, Sengun is the better player on the offensive end, while Holmgren is the better defensive player. Another difference is that Holmgren can stretch the floor with his outside shooting.
Jabari Smith Jr. vs Jalen Williams
While it is a stretch to compare these two, we have to note the ability of the Rockets to negotiate a better contract. Houston managed to sign Jabari Smith Jr. to a five-year, $122 million rookie contract extension. As a No.3 overall pick, Smith has plenty of upside and potential, be it in a trade, or as a player on the Rockets. On the other hand, the Thunder gave Jalen a five-year, max extension at $287 million.
Right now, Williams is clearly the better player. But going forward, Smith may have more value due to his lower contract. The Thunder will face pressure to build their roster with three max players. In the second-apron era, that is almost impossible.
Houston Rockets vs. OKC Thunder Future Draft Picks
One area where the Thunder have the advantage is with their draft capital. But while they have plenty of “potential” lottery picks, many of them might not convey. For example, they have a top-eight protected pick from the Utah Jazz in 2026. Looking at how the Jazz traded most of their veterans, they will likely keep that pick. Three other picks might be late first-round picks or in the 15 to 25 range, coming from the Denver Nuggets (2027), San Antonio Spurs (2027), and the Philadelphia 76ers (2026).
The Rockets, on the other hand, have an unprotected first-round pick coming from the Phoenix Suns in 2027 and swap rights with the Brooklyn Nets in 2027.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Elephant in the Room
While right now, it seems like the Thunder have a better future, the Rockets can improve their future with a trade for a superstar. What they lack is a clear MVP candidate. OKC has it in SGA, and while the Rockets got Durant in a trade, they can get even better. Even with the assets they used for KD, they still have enough to make a push for Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Going forward, the Rockets will be better suited to face the first and second apron. Even if they get Giannis, they will still have one or two max players, assuming Amen Thompson gets a max extension. Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. are signed for less than the max. Like the Thunder, they also have young players that are great role players like Tari Eason, and a second-year player expected to make a jump like Reed Sheppard. In this era of the NBA, having one or two max players makes a big difference compared to having three max players on the roster.
The Thunder might be forced to part ways with valuable role players and contributors like Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort, or maybe Aaron Wiggins. The Rockets, for now, do not have such a problem.
Photo credit: © Troy Taormina-Imagn Images
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