Other than, somehow, the Red Sox, there likely isn’t a better starting rotation in the American League at present than the Mariners. It is arguably the deepest staff and boasted the best strikeout rate in baseball (26.8%) and the third-lowest walk rate (5.8%) entering Friday. A daunting matchup for any lineup, especially for one hovering slightly above league average in runs per game (4.58), I mean, these Astros haven’t had much of an issue collecting hits, but scoring runs has become a noticeable struggle at times. Facing George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller in a weekend series, already trailing in the division by six games, wasn’t my idea of fun. But what do I know as this game was fun, albeit stressful, to watch.
To be clear, it wasn’t like the Astros had much going against Kirby in this game. The right-hander threw six innings of one-run ball, striking out three and, more importantly, not walking a single batter. Besides Jeremy Peña’s RBI groundout in the bottom of the fourth, Houston did little in the first six innings at the plate. Three of the four hits off of Kirby were singles, with the lone exception being Yordan Alvarez’s double. In the meantime, Seattle was able to ding Ronel Blanco for three runs, all being driven in by a home run (Jorge Polanco’s solo shot in the third followed by Dylan Moore’s two-run homer in the fifth).
Facing a 3-1 deficit entering the seventh inning, with the second half of the lineup coming up to bat, the Astros finally had some good fortune. Kirby was mercifully lifted after 88 pitches and replaced by former Astro farmhand, Trent Thornton. Jeremy Peña, with a much-improved approach this season, drew the opening walk, advancing to second on Yainer Dìaz’s single. Jon Singleton would ground out to first, but both runners would advance. Gabe Speier, one the Mariners’ best relievers to open the season with a 0.84 ERA, would open his appearance by walking Jake Meyers then saw an errant throw to third base by catcher Cal Raleigh to allow Peña to score from third base.
Now only a 3-2 deficit, Mauricio Dubón’s sacrifice fly scores Díaz to tie the game. Jose Altuve would subsequently single to drive in Meyers to give Houston its first lead of the game. Following back-to-back walks to Kyle Tucker and Alvarez, Speier was removed for Cody Bolton, who then walked Alex Bregman to drive in another run, expanding the lead for the Astros to 5-3. Peña would then strike out to end the threat, but the damage was done.
Entering the season, I would’ve been quite confident with a 5-3 lead entering the eighth inning when Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, and Josh Hader were all waiting. Heck, even Seth Martinez has entered the circle of trust. But, in 2024, that confidence is essentially zero at this point and it almost looked like another blown game for Pressly was about to happen in the eighth inning. After allowing back-to-back singles to Josh Rojas — another former Astros farmhand — and Julio Rodríguez, followed by a wild pitch to let the runners advance to second and third, it appeared ominous. With zero outs, it wasn’t hard to envision at least one scoring, perhaps two.
But something good and unfamiliar to this season happened: Pressly somehow escaped the jam. First, it helps that he got Polanco to strike out looking. Getting that first out felt huge in this situation. But with danger lurking, it was still a precarious situation. For reference, the Astros had an 80% win probability when Rojas first stepped to the plate. Before Polanco’s strikeout, however, that win probability fell to 61%. After the strikeout, it rebounded to 71.7%, but, again, it wouldn’t take much for those odds to dive right back down. Instead, we saw one of the more bizarre double plays in a while. Words can’t really do it justice, so below is the clip of the action. On a quick side note, who else thought this play could still end badly for the Astros or was it just me? My heart skipped a beat at least once or twice during this entire sequence.
Here’s the Astros’ wild double play to end the eighth, which left the Houston dugout all smiles pic.twitter.com/oeDw09eRP0
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) May 4, 2024
The game was basically over following that play. The Astros would get another baserunner in the bottom half of the eighth but didn’t generate another run. Josh Hader entered the game to close it out and he did just that. Only a walk to Ty France with one out produced a little bit of heartburn, but it was relatively mild. The lefty closer would finish the Mariners off by striking out both Mitch Garver and Luis Urías. It felt nice for a change to see the ninth inning be relatively calm for once, even if the eighth inning had more than enough excitement to cover for it.