Ronel Blanco’s Changeup Is No April Fools’ Joke

Joe Espada will never forget his first win as a major league manager. I mean, how could anyone forget the time that Ronel Blanco threw a no-hitter against the Blue Jays? On April Fools’ Day of all days. If baseball had a scriptwriter, they pulled a most unexpected twist on us. But this performance was definitely not a joke, especially as Blanco attempts to solidify his place on the Astros roster.

So, how did the 30-year-old right-hander accomplish such a feat, especially against a lineup of the ilk like Toronto?

Answer: Lots of changeups.

In all, Blanco threw 36 changeups, or about 34% of the time in his nine innings of work. Ten whiffs on 24 swings. All seven of his strikeouts occurred with a changeup as the last pitch. For context, he only threw a changeup around 9% of the time in 2023 across 52 innings. But it did exhibit some interesting whiff tendencies, even in limited action, with a 37% whiff rate.

While the pitch wasn’t a priority last season, at least in game situations, it became a focal point of Blanco’s preparation in Spring Training this year. Primarily a four-seam and slider combo type of pitcher in the past (nearly 89% usage rate in 2023), his first start of the 2024 season represents a significant deviation from those past tendencies. In fact, while his changeup led the way in usage, it was ultimately a fairly even pitch mix between the changeup, four-seam, and slider. But the changeup was crucial for Blanco in keeping his opposition off balance, especially in conjunction with a slider that was a +7 runs pitch in 2023.

The addition of a third pitch like a changeup was arguably necessary for Blanco. While his fastball has some potential, it was also the worst pitch on Houston’s staff last season, worth -13 runs. It is interesting to note that Blanco’s four-seam has less drop than average (13.7 inches) compared to the league average from last season (15.2 inches). Not anywhere near Cristian Javier’s less-than-average drop by inches in his first start of the season (11.5 inches), but there were indications even dating back to last season that Blanco could benefit from a change of location. To be fair, even in a fairly limited sample, the right-hander did throw his fastball higher in the zone compared to 2023. With less drop than the league average, it is a pitch that could possibly play better higher in the zone. But Blanco’s best pitch last year was his slider, although it didn’t grade particularly well according to Stuff+. In turn, it became vital that he developed a third pitch and his changeup appears to be a real option moving forward.

In terms of the changeup profile, Blanco’s above-average extension compared to the league average last season seems to aid in its perceived velocity, appearing about 1 MPH higher than the actual velocity reading, with slightly above average drop. These factors ought to help Blanco’s overall effectiveness, especially if he continues to mix his pitches well depending on the matchup and sequencing. Of course, the real test for him this season may lie in how well his fastball performs, not the changeup or slider. The changeup certainly helps, but Blanco will need his fastball to at least become something more akin to a neutral offering, instead of a hinderance as it was in 2023.

Blanco’s job, for the time being, isn’t absolutely secrue, but this performance gives him some slack. Even when Justin Verlander returns, the Astros may transition to more of a six-man rotation, which makes sense. That’ll likely keep Blanco in the rotation for a while. Only time will tell if Blanco can stick as a starter. If not, then he’ll likely slide into the bullpen to help fortify the depth chart in that aspect. Regardless of his long-term role, his changeup has the potential to become a real weapon for him. I am extremely curious to see how opposing hitters adjust to him and if he continues to adjust back.