Rumor has it that GM Dana Brown has talked with the Orioles about a trade for Cedric Mullins
It’s no secret that the Astros would like to have a LH ‘professional hitter” in the lineup. USA Today writer Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros are in the early stages of aggressively pursuing a LHB and have focused on Cedric Mullins, the Orioles’ Center Fielder. Mullins is playing on a one year $8.7 million contract and would be a rental asset.
A Yahoo article discusses the potential trade, noting that Mullins has been experiencing a down year in recent weeks.
From May 2 through June 28, Mullins posted a .542 OPS with a .163/.201/.340 triple-slash line, striking out in 44 of 141 at-bats with just 23 hits and 7 walks. It pales in comparison to the .927 OPS with 6 home runs and a 25-20 K-BB ratio that he recorded in his first 97 at-bats this season.
On the season, Mullins has been roughly average on offense (wRC+ 100), with a low batting average and OBP but a better SLG. The triple slash line and BA for his season so far vs. his career is shown below.
Mullins
BA/OBP/SLG/OPS
2025 .213, .295, .413, OPS .708
Career .249, .317, .424, OPS .741
This is stating the obvious: Mullins’ offense at his career average would be a very nice addition. But his offense so far this season is more problematic. The Astros would be hoping that he rebounds to numbers closer to his career mark.
How would Mullins be used if he were an Astros’ player? Probably similar to the way that Ben Gamel and Jason Heyward were last season. He would be the LH platoon bat in LF, I presume. That is the role that Cooper Hummel and Taylor Trammel are currently filling. The Gamel / Heyward acquistions worked out reasonably well—-but they were basically free assets, since they were DFA’d And, in fairness, at this stage of his career, Mullins is a better player than Gamel and Heyward. So it could work out well?
Maybe. But like most of these questions, it comes down to what the trading cost will be. Would the Orioles demand a player off the active roster, like Meyers or McCormick? Or would they want a nice prospect in return? Most of us are skeptical of giving up more prospects for a rental player, unless they really are lower ranked prospects.
Reportedly, the Guardians, Mets, and Phillies have also expressed interest in Mullins. This means that there will be competition to acquire him, most likely pushing his trading cost upward. So, he will probably cost the Astros something of value. Here are some things to add to the problematic list:
- Mullins would be a platoon bat, but this year he has reverse splits. batting .195 with a 88 wRC+ vs. RHPs. I am generally cautious in looking at splits over a few months due to the sample size. And his career splits are more normal, with a 115 wRC+ against RHP.
- Mullins’ Statcast “expected” offensive numbers are generally lower than his actual performance this year. His x-SLG is .352 vs. actual SLG of .413 and his wOBA of .310 exceeds his xwOBA f .295. This could indicate that regressing toward his career numbers is less likely.
- Mullins has mostly played CF in his career and OAA and DRS indicate that his fielding is a negative at that position. However, if he is limited to LF, I suspect that his fielding will be adequate.
- Why would the Orioles trade Mullins? Perhaps to avoid the rest of his salary and get something in return. However, the Astros are reportedly close to the luxury tax threshold which they would prefer to avoid. If Mullins is owed half of his salary when he is traded, that may barely fit under the CBT threshold—or even exceed the threshold, depending on the numbers you are using.
I’m not really advocating this trade. I think there is some potential downside risk that outweighs the type of trading cost that would be required On the other hand, Mullins could provide value as a LHB, and I suspect the chances are good that he will rebound somewhat if placed on a new team heading to the playoffs. So, if the trading cost is low enough, it might be a good idea.
Thoughts?