Is Jon Singleton the answer at 1st base? That, and other items to consider
Singleton
It is no secret that the Astros have not gotten the offensive production they expected from 1st base. The Astros are ranked 29th out of 30 teams in first base wRC+. The Astros transferred the starter, Jose Abreu, to the Astros’ training facilities in Palm Beach to work on his swing.
Some fans interpreted this move, in combination with the call up of Joey Loperfido, as an effort to use the rookie OF/1b as the first base starter. But, as Chandler Rome states, those who thought Loperfido would be the solution at 1st base “ignored the team’s repeated insistence that Loperfido is best suited as an outfielder.”
Instead, Jon Singleton received consistent playing time at 1b subsequent to Abreu’s optioning. And, it’s early and a small sample, but Singleton has been taking advantage of the opportunity.
In his last 55 plate appearances, Jon Singleton is slashing .292/.364/.521 with three homers and eight RBIs. He has a .764 OPS for the season.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) May 5, 2024
Most Astros’ fans are aware of the Singleton story. At age 22, he was the top 1st base prospect in the MLB. At the end of the 2014 season, Fangraphs listed Singleton, George Springer, and Jake Marisnick as the top major league growth assets on the Astros’ roster. But, put simply, he wasn’t successful in the major leagues at a young age, took some time off from baseball, and returned to the minor leagues with the Milwaukee Brewers. Given his past history with depression and rehab, Singleton proving to be a productive major league player at age 32 would be a great tale of redemption and perseverance.
But dreaming about a future storytale ending is getting ahead of ourselves. The immediate question is whether Singleton can continue the offensive pace mentioned by McTaggert’s post. If the Astros can get average 1st base performance out of Singleton, that would be a boost to the team’s lineup. But Singleton’s poor triple slash stats in his previous MLB seasons certainly give reason for skepticism.
Both ZIPS and Steamer projections support slightly above average (wRC+ 109) offense for Singleton over the remainder of the season. Singleton’s current slash line (.258, .329, .435) for a 119 wRC+ is pretty much the same as the ZIPS projection of Singleton’s 80 percentile performance (.235, .353, .440 wRC+ 117). Since that percentile may be close to a ceiling estimate for Singleton, the projection indicates that continuing his current performance level may be possible—but optimistic.
Chandler Rome’s article indicates that coach Omar Lopez continues working with Loperfido on the nuances of playing 1b. So, it’s possible, though maybe not likely, that the rookie may get a start or two at 1b. It’s also possible that Mauricio Dubon could see some games starting at 1b. However, at the moment Singleton has given Astros manager Joe Espada every reason to continue playing him at 1b.
Alex Bregman
For your consideration, a quote from Alex Bregman, provided without any comment:
“I felt really good all series long,” said Bregman, who walked three times against Seattle. “For me, I feel like once the ball leaves your bat, you can’t do anything about it. You try to square it up as many times as possible, and eventually everything will even out. Every day it’s getting closer and closer. I felt great in every at-bat today.”
Playoff Odds
If it feels like the Astros’ chances of getting back into contention are becoming dimmer—the current playoff odds are certainly moving in that direction. The Astros current playoff odds, according to Fangraphs, stand at 40%, almost ten points less than late April, and the division odds are dwindling to 22%. Both the Mariners and Rangers have overtaken the Astros as division favorites.
The Astros’ played .500 baseball in the recent homestand. As I suggested in an April 24 column (discussing Dan Symborski’s ZIPS modeling of the Astros’ beginning of the season) if the Astros play .500 ball until early to mid-June, another 8 -10 percentage points will fall off the playoff odds. And, the exact odds will depend on how the Mariners and Rangers perform over that time. The Astros must continue playing .500 ball at a minimum over the next couple of weeks, but at some point it will be necessary to play at a high rest of season win percent. The return of 2 – 3 injured starting pitchers over the next few months provide a theoretical path for that result.
It’s not impossible, but it becomes a tougher as time elapses.