How much was the 2023 draft really?
Once we remove the general disclaimers about looking too much at instant evaluations of the 2024 draft, we can begin to get some ideas of how successful the Houston Texans were this past weekend. However, before we get started we need to establish some ground rules. After all, no analysis is meaningful without a solid foundation and a solid frame of reference.
We need to be fair. The 2023 draft will always be special because of C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson. Those were the second and third overall selections. You aren’t going to get that even in the latter part of the first round much less the second round. So, we need to remove those picks across the top.
NFL.com did prospect grades going back several years that rates the prospect’s likelihood of contributing. We can look at the grades for the 2023 draftees after the first round and then compare that with 2024. That comes with a couple of different caveats, First, we must scrutinize those 2023 grades to determine how accurate those grades were. Plus, we also need to recognize that some drafts are better overall than others.
2023 Draft Profiles
OL Juice Scruggs— 6.21 (Eventual average Starter)
I think the outcome of the 2023 season depends on who you ask. Technically, he was the starter when he was physically able to do it. He also played at a different position than he played throughout camp and where he is likely to play this season. PFF grades weren’t kind, but we have to put heavy emphasis on the “eventual” in eventual average starter.
WR Tank Dell— 6.30 (Eventual plus starter)
I’d say that’s a big yes. I’d say plus starter describes him perfectly. Given how loaded wide receiver is, I don’t know if he will ever be a Pro Bowl performer, but he is definitely already better than the average starting receiver.
DE Dylan Horton— 5.99 (Likely backup)
Cancer sucks. The Texans have had their fair share and then some of cancer. I’m not exactly sure what people like Lance Zierlein are supposed to do to predict cancer. Our hopes and prayers are with Dylan right now as he fights this horrible disease.
LB Henry To’oTo’o— 6.16 (Good backup with starter potential)
Like Scruggs, the answer to this riddle is in the eye of the beholder. In terms of snaps he was an occasional starter and definitely a rotational player. How good were those snaps? That’s another question entirely. A large part of this calculation also depends on who is on the depth chart. The Texans didn’t have much and so he was needed.
OL Jarrett Patterson— 5.85 (Likely Backup)
Anyone detecting a theme here? Patterson started at center until he was lost for the season due to injury. Should he have started? You could claim he was the third or even fourth string option depending on how you interpret the depth chart. He will likely return to backup status.
WR Xavier Hutchinson— 5.87 (Likely Backup)
This one is fairly accurate and representative of what he was in 2023. Will he be more? I suppose anything is possible, but there was nothing from last season that would indicate he will be.
S Brandon Hill— 5.92 (Likely Backup)
Who?
Class Average: 6.04
2024 Draft Profiles
CB Kamari Lassister— 6.22 (Eventual Average Starter)
When you get an eventual starter in the second round you are doing pretty good. He will compete in training camp and may the best man win.
OT Blake Fisher— 6.26 (Eventual Average Starter)
Could you have covered a more immediate need here? This will be debated. As far as this guy is concerned it looks like he will possibly meet the expectations of offering them an option after 2024 to move away from Tunsil or Howard.
S Caden Bulluck— 6.16 (Good backup with starter potential)
We come to a general theme with this draft. Bullock is not a definite starter, but a guy that could eventually grow into one.
TE Cade Stover— 6.26 (Eventual Average Starter)
As much as I might question the Fisher selection, I love this one. This club was dangerously thin at tight end and now they can be more creative with two tight end sets or at least have competent play behind Dalton Schultz.
LB Jamal Hill— 5.90 (Likely Backup)
This one is okay I guess. I would have liked a running back higher in the draft, but you needed linebacker depth, so here you go.
RB Jawhar Jordan— 5.69 (End of the roster or Practice Squad)
This is largely based on testing. When you are as small as Jordan and you run a 4.6 40 then scouts are going to be understandably concerned. He is slated to be a backup anyway, but I would have liked to have gotten someone a little better. We will wait and see.
DE Sebastian Byrd— 5.64 (End of the Roster or Practice Squad)
It’s the 7th round. What do you expect? I guess you could have gotten a better football player at another position, but maybe they are looking at Dylan Horton likely missing time and hoping to get someone else that can compete.
DT Marcus Harris— 6.10 (Good backup with starter potential)
The only people that care where they are drafted are the agent and the player. Once camp starts then it doesn’t matter. If he can provide solid depth and a credible competitor for those veterans then it doesn’t matter when he was selected.
OL Ladarius Henderson— 5.64 (End of the roster or Practice Squad)
Let’s get another crash test dummy in there at guard just to keep the Green brothers honest. He could potentially be a nice piece to keep on the practice squad because last season showed that you need to keep plenty of guys handy.
Class Average: 5.99
Final Thoughts
As you can see, there isn’t a ton of difference once you remove the first two first rounders and the 2024 draft had more selections from the second round on. So, that’s two extra lottery tickets. You never know what can happen, but if the draft experts are accurate then this draft should be similar to the other one from the second round on.