Imagine if playing QB for the Houston Texans became the Carr family business.
Perhaps one of the biggest post-draft NFL headlines centered on New Orleans Saints’ QB Derek Carr’s retirement. Carr left the NFL as a 4-time Pro Bowler, playing for two franchises: Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints. He amassed a 77-92 record (0-1 playoff record), 257 TDs and 112 INTs.
Maybe Carr never lived up to the promise of being a true franchise QB for either the Raiders or the Saints. Yet, his path might have taken a different turn. There was a chance that maybe Derek followed the path of his older brother, David, and called Houston his first professional home. What if Houston decided to make that happen?
The 2014 draft class didn’t have the can’t-miss QB of 2013 (Andrew Luck). The top QB prospects along with Carr: Blake Bortles (UCF), Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville) and former Heisman Trophy Winner Johnny Manziel (Texas A&M). However, most felt DL Jadeveon Clowney (South Carolina) rated the top overall prospect. On night one the draft plays out the same as in reality. Houston goes with Clowney to pair with J.J. Watt to offer one of the most devastating pass rush combinations in the league (that didn’t quite happen). Bortles (3), Manziel (22) and Bridgewater (32) still go in the first round. Thus, when night two opens, Houston against sat in the pole position, able to select the best of the remaining prospects. If Houston wanted a first-round valued QB for a second round price, Carr was right there.
Yet, a couple of things hinders Houston picking Carr. Included in the wreckage of the 2013 was bad offensive line play. The Texans offensive line offered little consistency in 2013, and with a new offensive philosophy, change was inevitable. Plus, BO’B and the new staff felt that Houston lacked a degree of interior toughness in 2013, and bringing in some muscle might fix some long-standing toughness issues.
Then the curse of history. Most remembered older brother David was the first pick of the then-expansion Texans in 2002. Blessed with a rocket arm and good looks, David Carr appeared straight out of central casting for a franchise QB. Unfortunately, Houston forgot the supporting cast of offensive lineman. David Carr suffered five years of pain in Houston, never able to elevate the Texans to where they wanted to go, but also, he left Houston broken after 249 sacks. Thus, the Carr family might have had less-than-warm feelings towards Houston, and the Houston fanbase, disappointed by David Carr’s inability to elevate the team, felt the same about the Carrs.
History is uncertain if the Texans worried too much about the past, but Houston went with OG Xavier Su’a-Filo (XSF) from UCLA, and Derek Carr fell to Oakland a few picks later. XSF graded by some as the best guard in the draft, but he never lived up to the billing. While Carr would not play in Houston, he later confessed that he was “heart-broken” that Houston passed on him.
However, let’s say that Houston decided to go ahead and bring in Derek Carr. For one, Houston possessed a better Oline for Derek vs. David. Additionally, with a QB like Fitzpatrick, Derek didn’t face the pressure David did. In reality, BO’B went with Fitzpatrick over Tom Savage, the fourth round rookie to open 2014. In this timeline, Fitzpatrick still breaks camp as the starter, but perhaps with a shorter leash with Carr in the wings.
In reality, Carr missed out on a decent situation. Houston returned many of the key pieces from their playoff runs in 2011/2012, rendering 2013 a painful anomaly. Carr lacked weapons like WRs Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins and RB Arian Foster. The defense, with players like Watt and Johnathan Joseph, could help a young QB mitigate any offensive mistakes.
Let’s say that 2014 plays out similar in this timeline. Fitzpatrick is playing well and Houston maintains a winning record, but his margin for error is far less. When Houston enters the bye at 4-5, Houston decides to let Carr start at Cleveland, with Carr’s first TD pass going to Watt. However, Carr struggles in a home loss to Cleveland, and BO’B decides to go back to Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick plays well, but suffers a season-ending injury at Indy, and Carr takes over for the rest of the year. In this timeline, Keenum returns to the Houston roster, but only as backup depth. Houston still finishes 9-7, Watt still has a season for the ages, and Houston still misses the playoffs.
It is in 2015 where history starts taking a major turn. The Hoyer/Mallett/Savage QB drama that dominated in the real time never happens. Carr enters the 2015 season as the undisputed starter. In the real timeline, Carr puts up 32 TDs to 13 INTs, and leads Oakland to a 7-9 record. Here, Carr puts up similar numbers, only with a better overall defense. Houston manages to win the AFC South, but with a 10-6 record. They still host Kansas City in the Wild Card round, Unfortunately, Watt’s injury, combined with too many early Houston mistakes, sees Houston fall 23-17. A disappointing end to a season, but at least Houston feels they may have something at QB.
In the 2016 offseason, Houston spends big in free agency on OG Jeff Allen and RB Lamar Miller. However, Houston passes on free agent QB Brock Osweiler. The team enters 2016 full of optimism that with Carr and the new additions, they can truly contend for a title. The Texans defense, even without Watt but with Clowney, still ends the season rated #1 in total defense. With two years of NFL experience under his belt, Carr puts up stellar numbers for Houston. Given that in reality, Carr put up 28 TDs to only six INTs, with a 63% completion percentage, you could imagine him matching that on a solid Texans’ offensive squad (recall that the biggest issue with Houston offense that year was the QB spot). In particular, Carr’s game against Oakland in Mexico, where he bests the Brock Osweiler-led Raiders in a 27-20 thriller, throwing three TDs and dicing up the Raiders’ secondary, gives the fanbase unbridled optimism.
Yet, the alternate timeline starts to mirror the real one. In a primetime next-to-the-last-game, Carr throws three first-half TDs in a nationally televised contest to take a big lead over the Bengals. However, to help out the MVP talk, Bill O’Brien leaves Carr in the game to help pad stats. Unfortunately, Carr suffers a catastrophic injury in the fourth quarter of that game, breaking his fibula. Houston still wins the game: 37-21, but loses Carr for the year. Into the void steps Tom Savage. He gets one start before the playoffs. A strong Houston defense covers up a young QB’s mistakes, leading Houston to a solid win over the Miami Dolphins (23-13). However, without Carr, Houston’s offense can’t help out the defense and overcome the New England Patriots, suffering a painful 38-15 defeat.
There remains some bad blood about Houston’s decision in that Bengals’ game. However, even with some social media back-and-forth between the Carrs and various media personalities on social media, the Texans and Derek Carr eagerly await the start of the 2017 season. While Carr has yet to actually win a playoff game for Houston, the Texans feel content to ride with Carr. Contract extension talks are in the works. With the draft coming up, Houston, no longer in desperate need of a QB, nor with a bad QB contract to off-load, keeps their draft capital and enters the 1st round of the draft looking to reinforce other areas. It would be the Oakland Raiders, having off-loaded their toxic contract of Osweiler, that make the stunning draft day move to get Deshaun Watson, with electrifies the Raiders’ fanbase. Some in Houston grumble about keep Carr over Watson, but Carr’s given Houston no reason to move on from him.
Staff photographer
2017 is a season of big expectations. Unfortunately, while Carr continues his stellar play, the Texans suffer some nightmare defensive injuries and the contending Texans just miss the post-season with a 7-9 record. 2018 and 2019 see Houston notch back-to-back division titles, but it is not until 2019 Wild Card, where Carr finds RB Taiwan Jones on a great catch-and-run pass to finally win a playoff game. Unfortunately, those good feelings end the following week, when Houston falls to Kansas City in a straight beatdown, 49-21.
Houston continues to ride with Carr, but all is not well in the Houston front office. The Texans, to try to reinforce a suddenly porous line, make their desperation draft pick trades for players like Laremy Tunsil, which give them a chance in the present, but sacrifice their future. The front-office turmoil wears on the team. The combination of heavy sack totals and lack of team direction lead Carr to start to publicly question the team’s direction. He still plays during the 2020 season, but the team craters to 4-12. At this point, with only one playoff win, and limited time left in the game, Carr starts to demand a trade.
Initially, the Texans regime, under Caserio, does not make a move. Then, the situation in Oakland/Vegas gets interesting. Deshaun Watson, despite playing some breath-taking ball the past few seasons, is unhappy with the direction of the team. After butting heads with the Raiders brain trust over the offensive philosophy, Watson declares he wants out of Vegas. Trade talks are in the works, but then allegations of sexual harassment/abuse by Watson towards women in Oakland and Vegas surfaces. Suddenly, Watson is in a franchise limbo. Yet, the Gruden-led Raiders need a starting QB.
Then, the Oakland brain trust makes a startling move. They trade two first round and two mid-round picks to the Houston Texans for Derek Carr. At one point, the Raiders try to entice Houston to take Watson in the deal, but Houston only agrees to eat most of Carr’s remaining salary. Houston receives draft capital in 2022 and 2023 (the Raiders didn’t want to sacrifice the 2021 picks for some reason). Houston is bad in 2020 and 2021, but with draft capital, they can look to the future.
As for Carr, he plays for the Raiders, but suffers through the brutal firing of Gruden, the coaching upheavals, the inconsistent offensive structure, and is unable to win another playoff game. He still ends his career with the Saints, but remains wistful of his time in Houston. Most Texans’ fans view him as the “good” Carr, but also lament what might-have-been, especially in 2016. Still, the team is excited about their team with Derek Stingley, Jr., C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr, the latter of which comes to Houston via the trade of that Oakland pick in 2023.
That is one way this could have played out. If you have another way, let your (respectful) take be heard below.